All is not well with China’s auto market. On the surface, as the chart shows, sales appear to have picked up after January’s poor performance: • Q1 sales (red line) were flat versus 2011 (green) • Q2 sales were up 12%, due to a strong May and June performance But…. • It is unclear if […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Trade statistics confirm Brazil, China, slowdowns
Everyone is looking for clues as to how the market may develop during the second half of the year. One way is to listen to governments. But they, unfortunately, have a tendency to paint a rosy picture, as their main aim is to keep themselves in power. In addition, the rush to produce early snapshots […]
China’s PE demand slips as economic problems rise
Chemical markets are often rather good at providing important insights into wider economic trends. China’s polyethylene market is no exception. As the chart shows for the H1 period, based on trade data from Global Trade Information Services, demand has continued to slip: • It was down 1% (red column) versus H1 2011 (green) , and […]
Risks rise over China’s auto sales
The world’s 3 major auto markets – USA, Europe and China – currently account for ~70% of global sales. And as the chart above shows, H1 performance has been volatile over the 2005-11 period: • 2005 was the last year of the US subprime boom, and the US (red) was easily the largest market with […]
China’s leaders mark time till power handover
How many more empty cities like Ordos does China really need? Are 64.5m empty apartments enough, or should there be more? Should we build more steel mills, to add to the current 220MT of over-capacity? These are the questions facing China’s leadership today, as they debate the economic slowdown. Growth has slowed to a relative […]
China’s low-cost vehicle exports rise 43% in May
2 great myths are helping to destroy company profits as we transition to the New Normal: • In the West, it is that ‘recovery is just around the corner’ • In emerging economies, that everyone is now ‘middle class’ Sadly, this latter claim makes no sense at all. The reason is that it is based […]
Brazil’s PE exports increase as its economy slows
Brazil’s economy has soared in recent years, as its raw materials have supplied China’s infrastructure boom. China now accounts for 17% of total exports, and has replaced the USA as its largest trading partner. In turn, of course, this led to major growth in Brazil’s own chemical demand. Its polyethylene (PE) imports grew 78% from […]
China’s PE demand continues to weaken
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand continues to highlight the slowdown underway in the wider economy. As the chart shows for the January- May period, based on data from Global Trade Information Services: • Overall demand (red column) was down 5% versus 2010 (blue) • China’s production continued to increase, up 1% • Imports were down 9%, […]
China battles economic slowdown
Wenzhou in coastal Zhejiang province was the first city to encourage private enterprise when China began opening its economy in 1978. Its growth accelerated after China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001, attracting 2.8 million migrant workers to join the city’s population. Now its 9 million people are at the forefront of China’s slowdown, […]
BASF worries about China, India
BASF opened its first China plant 20 years ago. Its Asian strategy focuses on China, Japan, S Korea and India. Thus yesterday’s comments by vice chairman Martin Brudermüller deserve careful study by any company or investor who is interested in the outlook for the region. The background was an unexpected 5% fall in BASF’s regional […]
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