Tag Archives | crude oil prices

US dollar rises as investors worry low-cost money may disappear

Nobody knows how the Great Unwinding of central bank stimulus policies will develop.  The world has simply never been in this position before.  Thus the senior economics and business correspondent of the Financial Times, John Plender, began an article this week: “In a market where asset prices are comprehensively rigged by central bankers, rational investment […]

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Oil prices break out of their triangle – downwards

The Great Unwinding of the central banks stimulus policies is underway, as discussed last week.  Oil markets have been one of the first to feel the change, as the chart shows, with prices finally falling out of the ‘triangle’ shape built up since 2008.  The value of the US$, interest rates and the S&P 500 […]

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Europe unprepared for hard winter without Ukraine gas

There is an alarming naivety about Western policymakers’ response to events in the Ukraine.  They have simply chosen not to recognise that Russia’s strategic objectives are no longer about building links with Europe, but are instead about creating a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Thus they assume that Russia will always put its economic interests ahead of its political objectives.  And […]

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US condensate exports highlight oil market weakness

Slowly but surely the myths over supposed supply shortages in the crude oil market are being exposed.  As leading US investment magazine Barron’s wrote this week: “In May, U.S. production hit its highest monthly average level since 1988 and is projected to keep rising. Domestic supplies have piled up in storage, especially on the Gulf […]

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US oil inventories hit record high as supply increases

Imagine that 5 years ago, you had been asked by your Board to forecast future oil prices.  And suppose you had prepared a forecast which said: Oil demand growth will slow in the West, as cars become more fuel-efficient and ageing populations drive less Demand growth in the emerging economies will be supported temporarily by real estate […]

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C2 pricing Jan14

Ethylene prices have 96% correlation to oil prices

Companies are about to review their Q1 performance, and re-forecast profit and revenue for the rest of the year.  Most will be disappointed with results so far, as the long-promised economic recovery has again failed to appear. This will be no surprise to blog readers.  But there is another and connected issue for Management Teams to worry […]

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Aluminium shortage “temporary and artificial” says world’s largest buyer

When was the last time you told your customers that they would have to wait 570 days for delivery of material for which they have already paid? You’ve never done this?  Well, you need to take lessons from those super-smart people who own the aluminium warehouses, such as Goldman Sachs (pictured above by Reuters).  As the blog […]

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“The policy Kings/Queens have no clothes”

There seems almost no need to publish a forecast for 2014.  Policymakers have toured the TV studios to confirm that this is finally the year of recovery.  They admit it may have taken nearly 5 years longer than first expected, and that there have been numerous ‘false dawns’ on the way.  But now, they are certain that […]

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Demand now the key driver for future US petchem profitability

Will the US be able to sell all its planned new petchem volumes?  That is the 3rd topic in the blog’s series about critical areas where we all think we know what’s happening, but may end up being surprised. We all know that the US now has a major feedstock advantage versus Europe, Asia and Latin America due […]

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US shale revolution puts squeeze on European chemicals groups

The Financial Times has carried an excellent analysis this week of the key shale gas issues facing the European chemical industry.  It includes comments from a number of CEOs, as well as from the blog.  Its key points are as follows: THE STRATEGIC DILEMMA “European petrochemical makers risk being squeezed between low-cost producers in the Middle East […]

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