OPEC+ oil producers saw prices tumble $10/bbl (13%) on Friday as the world woke up to the fact that the next phase of the pandemic may be underway. And this is not the only challenge that they face. OIL PRICES HAVE ONLY BEEN HELD UP BY MAJOR SUPPLY CUTBACKS The first is the challenge from […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Plastics producers need to move to recycled feedstocks as Western refineries start to close
Plastics producers are now being squeezed from both ends of the value chain. Upstream, the growing demand for Electric Vehicles is starting to lead to refinery closures, reducing feedstock availability. Downstream, brand owners are stepping up the pressure for increased use of recycled plastic, as the new Global Commitment report from the Ellen Macarthur Foundation […]
‘Watch out below!’ as supply chain chaos comes to an end
“What goes up, comes down” is usually a good motto when prices start to reach for the skies. As the great investor Bob Farrell noted in his 10 Rules, they usually go further than you think. But they don’t then correct by going sideways. The charts showing US lumber prices, China coal prices and the […]
The Fed’s stock market bubble is at risk as China bursts its real estate bubble
The US stock market bubble just keeps rising. And every investor “knows” that the US Federal Reserve will never let it burst. But the Fed can’t control the fallout from the bursting of China’s ‘subprime on steroids’ real estate bubble. Could this also mean the end of the Fed’s bubble? There is no doubt that […]
Businesses set for transformation as supply chain chaos combines with Net Zero targets
‘Business as usual’ seems a most unlikely outcome as we look forward over the next 6 months. The pandemic may well bring further trials for us to endure. We also have to set budgets for the next few years, and so we will need new strategies and business models to respond to the Net Zero […]
Auto industry provides a model for the transition to Net Zero
Flooding in China and Europe, record temperatures in the USA, wild fires – all these are signs that climate change is accelerating. After all, the world has gone from 2.5bn people in 1950 to 7.9bn today. That must have an effect. In this interview with Felicia Loo and John Richardson on ICIS News, I discuss […]
Oil markets enter the endgame as car companies rush to electrify
Almost every day now sees a car company rushing to announce its plans to boost Electric Vehicle (EV) output. And key OPEC members – such as the UAE – are starting to recognise they have only a few years left to sell their oil, before the market disappears. Last May, the influential International Energy Agency […]
“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell
In January, “everyone knew” that inflation was about to take off, and that the US$ was going to collapse. Last week, the great Bob Farrell’s Rule No 9 proved its worth, yet again. US interest rates fell sharply and the US$ bottomed for this cycle. The two charts above tell the story – because they […]
Oil markets, OPEC, enter the endgame for the Age of Oil
2 major events shocked oil markets last week. They marked the start of (a) the endgame for the Age of Oil and (b) the paradigm shift to the Circular Economy and the new Age of Energy Abundance. The new ‘Net Zero by 2050’ report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was the first shock: It […]
Biden’s Earth Day Summit puts plastics recycling on the fast track
Plastics has long been the ‘odd one out’ in terms of recycling. Steel, aluminium, glass, cardboard, rubber and paper routinely have up to a 70% rate of recycling. But plastics has been stuck at around 10% for a long time. President Biden’s Earth Day Summit is likely to change this picture, and quickly. The reason […]