A year ago, the International Monetary Fund rightly warned that the world was facing a “serious economic slowdown”. This week, it has updated its forecasts, and now “expects the global economy to come to a virtual standstill in 2009″. This will be “the lowest rate of global GDP growth since World War II”. As the […]
Tag Archives | crude oil prices
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, now seems to be moving to Phase 2 of its efforts to achieve a $75 – $100bbl price range. As the blog noted in early December, the Saudis’ initial tactic was to play ‘hardball’ within OPEC. The aim was to ensure that other countries did not try to […]
In early October, I forecast that we were about to revisit “the scariest moment of my 30 year chemical career”, adding that: “The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand […]
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its estimate of expected global GDP growth in 2009 to just 1.2%. It therefore expects the world to record its first back-to-back annual decline in oil demand since 1982/3. It says oil production last month was unchanged at 86.2mbd, despite OPEC cutbacks and the first fall in Russian […]
The ever-interesting PetroMatrix report notes that 2008 saw record volumes of crude oil trading. As their chart shows (above), the volume of trading on futures markets in 1995 was equal to daily oil production volumes. By 2000, the ratio had reached 2 : 1, and by 2005 it was 3 : 1. The ratio then […]
The blog is now 18 months old. It has a truly global readership, and as shown in the above map, is now read in 1244 cities and 89 countries. Its aim has always been to identify ‘the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months’, and to ‘develop useful […]
Regular readers of the blog will know that it believes price movements in benzene have great predictive power. This is due to the fact that benzene is one of the oldest of the major chemicals, and has the widest industrial usage. Thus in March, when benzene prices hit a “ceiling”, the blog noted this was […]
An interesting note from PetroMatrix highlights the close linkage that has now developed between changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and WTI crude oil prices. The chart, showing market action on Thursday, makes the point very clearly. PetroMatrix’s analysis suggests that “the correlation across asset classes remains very strong and there is little diversification […]
OPEC has called an emergency summit for 18 November ‘to discuss the global financial crisis, the world economic situation and the impacts on the oil market’. Its president, Chakib Khelil, added that it was ‘very likely’ they would cut output. This morning’s price is already down to $80/bbl, with US total products demand down 8.6% […]
The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped. As Nigel Davis notes in an excellent ICIS insight article, we are not there yet. […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.