“The 1950-2000 period is like no other in human or financial history in terms of population growth, economic growth, inflation or asset prices.” This quote isn’t from ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again‘, the very popular ebook that John Richardson and I published in 2011. Nor is […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Time to recognise the economic impact of ageing populations
Is global economic growth really controlled by monetary policy and interest rates? Can you create constant growth simply by adjusting government tax and spending policy? Do we know enough about how the economy operates to be able to do this? Or has something more fundamental been at work in recent decades, to create the extraordinary […]
China’s lending bubble is history
As China’s shadow banking is reined in, the impact on the global economy is already clear, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog China’s shadow banking sector has been a major source of speculative lending to the global economy. But 2018 has seen it entering its […]
The return of volatility is the key market risk for 2018
We are living in a strange world. As in 2007 – 2008, financial news continues to be euphoric, yet the general news is increasingly gloomy. As Nobel Prizewinner Richard Thaler, has warned, “We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping.” Both views […]
China’s central bank governor warns of ‘Minsky Moment’ risk
The world is coming to the end of probably the greatest financial bubble ever seen. Since the financial crisis began in 2008, central banks in China, the USA, Europe, the UK and Japan have created over $30tn of debt. China has created more than half of this debt as the chart shows, and its total debt […]
Political risk and interest rates rise in US, UK and Japan, as debt and dysfunctionality grow
It was almost exactly 10 years ago that then Citibank boss, Chuck Prince, unintentionally highlighted the approach of the subprime crisis with his comment that: ‘We are not scared. We are not panicked. We are not rattled. Our team has been through this before.’ We are ’still dancing’.” On Friday JP Morgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, […]
Budgeting for the Great Reckoning
One thing is certain about the 2017 – 2019 Budget period. “Business as usual” is the least likely Scenario to occur. The IMF chart above highlights the key issue: for the past 5 years, all its forecasts of a return to “normal” levels of growth have proved over-optimistic: Back in 2011, the IMF was […]
Suspense rises as Great Unwinding becomes the Great Reckoning
“There is a distinct difference between “suspense” and “surprise.” Alfred Hitchcock It is now 2 years since the start of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus. On 15 August 2014, Brent was at $105/bbl, and the US$ Index was at 81. Since then, as the chart shows, Brent oil prices have fallen 53%, whilst the […]
Global GDP sees record fall in 2015 as world hits “demographic cliff”
Central bankers remain in Denial about the failure of their stimulus policies. Yet new IMF data for global GDP shows GDP fell by $3.8tn in 2015 – the biggest fall on record – as the world hits the “demographic cliff”. We have now seen 2 record falls in 6 years, as the previous record was $3.3tn […]
Inflation turns to deflation as stimulus debt now has to be repaid
Its not what we know that causes the major problems. Its what we think we know, but don’t. We know, for example, that markets balance supply and demand by shifting prices up and down. Too much demand and/or too little supply, will mean higher prices and inflation. This is what happened as the BabyBoom took place: Medical […]
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