Tag Archives | demographics

12 million missing workers highlight US GDP slowdown

Employment income is critical for most Americans and for the US economy.  The above chart shows how the key factor - the participation rate - has changed since records began in 1948.  It shows July data, to avoid the need for seasonal adjustment, split by Men, Women and Total: □  Last month’s Total rate was 63.4%, versus the […]

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Ring of fire Feb15

Brexit a disaster for the UK, Europe and the world

First, the good news.  It has long been recognised that the UK economy is over-dependent on financial services, and that its housing market – particularly in London – is wildly over-priced in relation to earnings.  The Brexit vote should ensure that both these problems are solved: Many banks and financial institutions are already planning to […]

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45-year baby drought stalls Western economic growth

200 years ago, most blog readers would have been dead at their current age.  Life expectancy in the West was just 34 years in 1820, and averaged only 24 years everywhere else.  Today, as the chart shows, Western life expectancy has risen to 79 years (red area).  In the the emerging economies, it has nearly […]

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Economic impact of ageing populations is obvious, but ignored

Too many policymakers, companies and investors are continuing to ignore the dramatic changes taking place in the age profile of the global population.  Yet common sense tells us these must have a major impact on the economy.  The impact comes from 2 equally important developments: One is the rise in the number of people in the New […]

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55 plus – a new market

The blog’s analysis about the inevitability of slowing demand and deflation was warmly received at Euromoney’s latest Global Bond Investors’ Congress.   Far fewer of this year’s attendees still believed that central banks could return the Western economy to SuperCycle growth levels. Thus its concept of the 3 Normals received a most enthusiastic response. This week has seen even greater interest develop […]

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Consumer demand patterns change as Boomers return to cities

The ageing BabyBoomers are now leaving the suburbs in large numbers, and moving back to the cities, as the blog discussed in October.  Thus as the Wall Street Journal reports, housing needs are changing quite dramatically. The main growth area for housing is now in high-rise apartment towers built for rent: “The growth in new rental […]

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Ageing BabyBoomers slow housing, auto markets

As promised yesterday, the blog today looks at the wider impact of the major changes underway in housing markets.  Driven by the ageing BabyBoomers these changes are, in effect, like throwing a series of large stones into the middle of a pool of water – the ripples spread wider and wider as the impact grows. One key […]

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US shale gas expansions highlight lack of demand

One good thing may come out of the current excitement over the US ethylene expansions being discussed on the basis of shale gas developments. Boards may decide to look at seriously at the way yesterday’s ‘demographic dividend’ has now become today’s ‘demographic deficit’.  That would be a major step forward for the US and the […]

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Adapting to the ageing baby boomers

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. February 13, 2014 2:22 pm by FT Two remarkable global demographic developments have occurred since 1950. Yet only recently have their impact on companies and the economy begun to be properly understood. Life expectancy has risen by 50 per cent since 1950 […]

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A New Year resolution

Do you recognise any of these women?  Pictured in an excellent Financial Times article they are (left to right), New York Style icon Iris Apfel; model and actress Marisa Berenson; model and actress Lauren Hutton; fashion designer Jenny Kee; actress Meryl Streep. Nothing difficult about that you may say - even if, like the blog, you remember […]

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