Tag Archives | demographics

US shale gas expansions highlight lack of demand

One good thing may come out of the current excitement over the US ethylene expansions being discussed on the basis of shale gas developments. Boards may decide to look at seriously at the way yesterday’s ‘demographic dividend’ has now become today’s ‘demographic deficit’.  That would be a major step forward for the US and the […]

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Adapting to the ageing baby boomers

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. February 13, 2014 2:22 pm by FT Two remarkable global demographic developments have occurred since 1950. Yet only recently have their impact on companies and the economy begun to be properly understood. Life expectancy has risen by 50 per cent since 1950 […]

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A New Year resolution

Do you recognise any of these women?  Pictured in an excellent Financial Times article they are (left to right), New York Style icon Iris Apfel; model and actress Marisa Berenson; model and actress Lauren Hutton; fashion designer Jenny Kee; actress Meryl Streep. Nothing difficult about that you may say - even if, like the blog, you remember […]

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France’s pension age stays low, whilst New Old 55+ generation increases

France, with GDP of $2.6tn, is the 5th and final profile in the blog’s series on the impact of ageing populations on economic growth.  Its importance lies not just in the size of its economy, but also in the fact that its relationship with Germany has been the driving force behind the European Union and the Eurozone. France […]

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Four things we think we know, but probably don’t

Knowing that we don’t know something makes us uncertain and cautious.  If, for example, we come to a dangerous corner in the road when driving, we see the sign and slow down.  Its when we are driving on a bright winter morning and don’t look for the ice under the trees that we end up in […]

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China and NEA’s ‘demographic dividend’ turns to deficit

October’s post ‘Women now have half the number of children compared to 1950‘ attracted great interest amongst blog readers from around the world.  It highlighted how global life expectancy has risen 50% since 1950 to average 70 years.  Over the same period, the average number of children being born has halved to just 2.5 per woman. It thus suggested today’s […]

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Income and age will determine American’s future housing needs

Affordability is the key factor in today’s markets.  And nowhere is this more true than in US housing.  The subprime lending boom of the early 2000s is now long finished.  And US GDP growth averages just 1.7% since 2000.  So understanding the detailed picture of income levels is becoming critically important for forecasting future demand. Housing used […]

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Demographics has “frightening implications” for the economy

The blog first wrote about the potential impact on GDP growth of changing demographics in January 2010, in its first White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’  This put forward the Scenario that the world economy could face an: “L-shaped recovery, where we follow the pattern of the Japanese economy after its ‘financial bubble’ burst in 1990. […]

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The blog on BBC Radio

Slowly but surely the world’s media are starting to follow the demographic story, and how it relates to today’s ongoing economic crisis. Thus the blog was interviewed by BBC Radio’s flagship current affairs programme, The World Tonight on Thursday (it begins at 10:20 mins). The interview was part of a special series looking at why […]

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Economic possibilities in demographics

The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is published today. April 19, 2013 4.59 pm by Financial Times Guest post by Paul Hodges The G20 group represents 79 per cent of global GDP.But when it comes to demographics, you can split its membership into threequite distinct groups. The chart shows each country in terms […]

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