Knowing that we don’t know something makes us uncertain and cautious. If, for example, we come to a dangerous corner in the road when driving, we see the sign and slow down. Its when we are driving on a bright winter morning and don’t look for the ice under the trees that we end up in […]
Tag Archives | demographics
October’s post ‘Women now have half the number of children compared to 1950‘ attracted great interest amongst blog readers from around the world. It highlighted how global life expectancy has risen 50% since 1950 to average 70 years. Over the same period, the average number of children being born has halved to just 2.5 per woman. It thus suggested today’s […]
Affordability is the key factor in today’s markets. And nowhere is this more true than in US housing. The subprime lending boom of the early 2000s is now long finished. And US GDP growth averages just 1.7% since 2000. So understanding the detailed picture of income levels is becoming critically important for forecasting future demand. Housing used […]
The blog first wrote about the potential impact on GDP growth of changing demographics in January 2010, in its first White Paper, ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ This put forward the Scenario that the world economy could face an: “L-shaped recovery, where we follow the pattern of the Japanese economy after its ‘financial bubble’ burst in 1990. […]
Slowly but surely the world’s media are starting to follow the demographic story, and how it relates to today’s ongoing economic crisis. Thus the blog was interviewed by BBC Radio’s flagship current affairs programme, The World Tonight on Thursday (it begins at 10:20 mins). The interview was part of a special series looking at why […]
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is published today. April 19, 2013 4.59 pm by Financial Times Guest post by Paul Hodges The G20 group represents 79 per cent of global GDP.But when it comes to demographics, you can split its membership into threequite distinct groups. The chart shows each country in terms […]
Stock market investors in Japan are feeling very pleased. The Nikkei share index has risen 40% since new premier Abe was elected last year. And now the new governor of the Bank of Japan has confirmed he plans to wave a magic wand to restore economic growth and create inflation. He is not bothered that […]
The G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA) account for nearly 50% of global GDP. Today, however, their populations are ageing rapidly. As consultants AT Kearney (ATK) note in a report on consumer spending patterns: • The G7 now has more people over the age of 55 than under 15 years • Global […]
It seems increasingly clear that China’s economic policy took a wrong turning 10 years ago, when it joined the World Trade Organisation. 2001 was also the year when the Western BabyBoomers (those born between 1946-70), began to leave the peak consumption age group of 25-54 years. As they entered the 55+ age range, and the […]
Revolution and unrest have many causes. Very often, as now in the Middle East and N Africa (MENA), their strength is due to a wide range of economic, social and political factors combining to create a coalition of angry people. Age profile is also a key factor. As shown in the above chart, based on […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.