We are living in a New Normal world. Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common. My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Economic policy needs to focus on impact of the 100-year life
Nearly two-thirds of people in the world’s top 25 countries feel their country is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from Ipsos MORI. As their chart shows: China, Saudi Arabia, India, Argentina, Peru, Canada and Russia are the only countries to record a positive feeling The other 18 are increasingly desperate […]
Fed’s economic models applied to a past era
The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter below, welcoming the Fed’s decision to address the impact of demographics, but arguing that it needs to focus on demand issues, given the impact of today’s ageing populations. Sir, It is good to see the US Federal Reserve is finally beginning to address the impact of demographics […]
Markets doubt Carney’s claim to have saved 500k UK jobs
Last week as the BBC reported, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, explained to an audience in Birmingham that the Bank had saved the UK economy after the Brexit vote in June: “Between 400,000 and 500,000 jobs could have been at risk if the Bank had not taken action after the referendum, he said. “We are willing […]
Central bankers create debt, not growth, by ignoring demographic reality
The world’s 4 main central bankers love being in the media spotlight. After decades climbing the academic ladder, or earning millions with investment banks, they have the opportunity to rule the world’s economy – or so they think. But their background is rather strange preparation to take on this role – even if it was […]
G7 birth decline confirms central banks can’t print babies
2015 data is now available for births in the G7 countries, responsible for almost 50% of global GDP. It confirms the picture of a steadily aging population. This has enormous implications for the economy, as older people already own most of what they need, and their incomes decline as they move into retirement. As the […]
12 million missing workers highlight US GDP slowdown
Employment income is critical for most Americans and for the US economy. The above chart shows how the key factor – the participation rate – has changed since records began in 1948. It shows July data, to avoid the need for seasonal adjustment, split by Men, Women and Total: □ Last month’s Total rate was 63.4%, versus the […]
Brexit a disaster for the UK, Europe and the world
First, the good news. It has long been recognised that the UK economy is over-dependent on financial services, and that its housing market – particularly in London – is wildly over-priced in relation to earnings. The Brexit vote should ensure that both these problems are solved: Many banks and financial institutions are already planning to […]
45-year baby drought stalls Western economic growth
200 years ago, most blog readers would have been dead at their current age. Life expectancy in the West was just 34 years in 1820, and averaged only 24 years everywhere else. Today, as the chart shows, Western life expectancy has risen to 79 years (red area). In the the emerging economies, it has nearly […]
Economic impact of ageing populations is obvious, but ignored
Too many policymakers, companies and investors are continuing to ignore the dramatic changes taking place in the age profile of the global population. Yet common sense tells us these must have a major impact on the economy. The impact comes from 2 equally important developments: One is the rise in the number of people in the New […]
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