China’s reported 7.4% GDP growth for 2014 was the lowest in 25 years. But even so, it probably still overstates the true economic position. How could China possibly produce a final fiigure for GDP within just 20 days of 2015? Electricity consumption, as Premier Li has advised in the past, is a far more reliable guide to the actual […]
Tag Archives | electricity
The blog got 54.8m results from Google when it entered the phrase “China GDP” this week. The only problem, seemingly unrecognised by most analysts, is that China’s GDP report is a completely fictitious number, invented by the leadership each quarter to suit its own narrative. This sounds a bold statement, but it isn’t: China is the only country to […]
There’s a lot of wishful thinking underway about China’s future growth. All the experts who told us that its growth was ‘inevitable’ and would never end, are now having to face the issue that clearly growth is now slowing fast. Their response, of course, is to remain in Denial mode. They imagine that a magic […]
The blog’s views on the unsustainability of China’s epic economic growth since 2009 have now become truly mainstream. Everyone now agrees, including the new leadership, that it was created by a credit bubble. State-owned China Daily has even now warned that a commercial property bubble potentially now exists alongside the residential bubble and the infrastructure ‘white elephants’, adding: “Once […]
China’s economy is continuing to slow, as the new leadership takes power. As the chart shows of H1 performance: Electricity consumption (red line) was up 5% versus H1 2012 Bank lending was up 4% These levels are of course well below the published GDP figure of 7.5% for Q2, but the two types of data […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.