Tag Archives | ethylene

China’s PVC exports confirm its move to self-sufficiency

Many commentators were shocked by China’s weak trade data on Monday – with imports falling 12.5% versus July 2015, and January – July imports down 10.5%.  But they were no surprise to anyone focused on developments in the chemical industry, which has once again confirmed its status as the most reliable leading indicator for the […]

Continue Reading
China PP May16

Clouds gather over global polymer markets as China imports drop

Difficult times lie ahead for global polymer markets.  It would be bad enough that downstream users have been busy building stock in recent weeks as the oil price rose, as Linda Naylor reports on polypropylene (PP) for ICIS: “PP demand is slow, slower than many expected, and the strong growth of recent months is now […]

Continue Reading

US ethylene output rise warns of market share battles ahead

“The reality is the US from a chemical standpoint is a very mature market. We have some demand growth domestically in the US but it’s a % or two – it’s not strong demand growth,” Pryor said, adding that polyethylene hardly grew in the US in a decade. “That is not going to change. “The […]

Continue Reading

Propylene price collapse highlights New Normal world

Everyone wants to assume that markets will soon be back to “normal”.  Consensus thinking now accepts that China will be a bit slower than before – but it argues that 6.5% GDP growth is still pretty good, even if it isn’t double digit.  And it suggests that persistence, and “staying the course” is vital for […]

Continue Reading

Investors worry US ethylene expansions mimic mining downturn

I spent most of last week in New York and Boston, meeting with major investors.  One key topic on all their agendas was the major downturn underway in the global mining industry.  The connection with my visit was that some have already begun to worry that the planned US ethylene expansions may lead to a […]

Continue Reading

BASF warns on outlook; Dow warns on China, ethylene cycle

BASF and Dow Chemical both warned on the outlook when presenting their H1 results last week: BASF CEO Kurt Bock warned, “We have for second quarter in the row in chemicals no growth worth mentioning . . . that is not a gratifying development.  We have the impression that there is little growth dynamic at the moment and our customers remain extremely cautious […]

Continue Reading

Oil price fall creates major inventory risk for chemical markets

Oil prices have now fallen $50/bbl since I forecast their collapse in August.  But it is only recently that companies and investors have begun to realise this price fall is real, and not just a minor blip.  As a result, few have yet recognised the extent of the collateral damage that is likely to appear in […]

Continue Reading

US shale gas bubble will end in tears for ethylene expansions

A return to lower oil prices is good news for the global economy.  But it is bad news for all those who have invested in expanding ethylene production on the assumption that US gas prices would maintain the temporary advantage of recent years.  As the chart shows: Oil (blue line) has around 6x the energy […]

Continue Reading

Shell CEO says Europe needs to leverage chemicals clusters

There are 2 ways to improve operating rates in an industry.  One is to increase volumes, the other is to reduce capacity.   The latest APPE data covering H1 2014 for European olefin capacity highlights how the European petrochemical industry has successfully used both mechanisms over the past year to improve its position: Ethylene volume increased to 9.8MT, versus […]

Continue Reading

US ethylene outages boost European and Asian PE producers

Polymer traders must be already counting their end-of-year bonuses, as the value of the US$ rises whilst crude oil prices weaken.  The biggest bonuses will likely go to polyethylene (PE) traders competing with US producers. The reason is that US ethylene spot prices are currently at record levels.  An astonishing 10% of US ethylene capacity has been out […]

Continue Reading