Smartphone markets continue to provide early warning of the major changes taking place in consumer markets. And Q4 data confirms the old rules are becoming less and less relevant: As the chart shows, market positioning is now all-important. Apple are stretching their lead in the ‘sweet spot’ of the value chain – design – and […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The Great Reckoning for policymakers’ failures has begun
Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2018-2020 period. The aim, as always, will be to challenge conventional wisdom when this seems to be heading in the wrong direction. Before publishing the new Outlook each year, I always like to review my previous forecast. Past performance may not be a perfect […]
Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls
Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives. Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]
Europe’s migrant influx threatens Schengen
Europe’s migrant crisis is creating a risk that the free movement of individuals and trade within Europe might be restricted. We take this for granted today, as the Schengen Agreement of 1995 has largely abolished border checks within 26 European countries – covering a population of over 400 million people and an area of 4,312,099 square […]
Time to look forward, not back, for European petrochemicals
The European petrochemicals industry is in crisis. Operating rates dropped below 85% in H2 2008, and have never recovered. Now there is a danger that it faces death by a thousand cuts. This would be a tragedy for the European economy, as it would imply the loss of tens of thousands of well-paid jobs along […]
Benzene markets suggest BabyBoomer growth will not reappear
Benzene has always been one of the blog’s favourite leading indicators for the global economy. The reason is simple, in that it has been around a long time, and is now used in a very wide range of industries. So it provides us with a broad-based picture of the global economy. The chart above highlights another important […]
EU auto sales at lowest-ever level, with average car used only 1 hour per day
Europe goes on holiday during August, so we have to wait – with not quite breathless anticipation – until September to see official ACEA auto sales figures for July and August. Unfortunately, they contained no real surprises. July (red square) managed a small increase versus 2012 levels (green line), but August sales then fell back […]
Extra selling days support EU April auto sales
Good news about EU auto sales is always welcome, especially when it comes after 17 months of declining sales. Thus the blog is happy to note that April’s sales rose 1.7% versus 2012. Equally, however, it has to report the commentary of Europe’s auto association (ACEA): “The region counted on average two more working days […]
Europe’s social shock-absorbers show crisis strain
Readers outside Southern Europe may not realise the growing crisis that is developing across the region. As Unilever CEO Paul Polman warned in January, “the biggest issue in Europe is going to be social cohesion”. Similarly, his colleague, Jan Zijderveld, European head, warned back in August that “poverty is returning to Europe”. Zijderveld also highlighted […]
Risks rise over China’s auto sales
The world’s 3 major auto markets – USA, Europe and China – currently account for ~70% of global sales. And as the chart above shows, H1 performance has been volatile over the 2005-11 period: • 2005 was the last year of the US subprime boom, and the US (red) was easily the largest market with […]