Tag Archives | Eurozone

UK risks “crashing out” of EU after election without trade deal

Yesterday, senior EU negotiators warned that “the chances of Britain crashing out of the EU without a new (trade) deal were now “over 50%””.  Clearly, therefore, the UK’s preparations are not going well. Instead of building trust, the UK’s Brexit Secretary, David Davis, seems to think that threats – such as promising “the row of […]

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“Business as usual” the least likely outcome for Europe

Europe is heading in to the Great Unknown, as Monday’s post highlighted.  The UK, The Netherlands and France are not the only political uncertainties that we face.  Elections are also due in Italy and in Germany.    Italian elections. After premier Renzi’s referendum defeat last year, it seems like that Italy will hold elections this year, […]

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Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls

Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives.  Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]

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Blog Dec16

The blog in 2016

2016 saw the Great Reckoning for the failure of stimulus policies begin to impact companies and markets. The blog’s readership has increased significantly as a a result, as shown in the chart above, with its visits now totaling nearly 500k.  Its readership includes 197 countries and over 11k cities.  Readers also remain very loyal, with […]

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Italy’s referendum is next test for Eurozone stability

Italy was one of the 6 founding members of the European Union (EU) in 1957, along with France, the Netherlands, W Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg.  Its referendum next month will therefore be a critical test of whether the Eurozone and EU can survive the pressure from the Populists. If the Populists win, then the future […]

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Europe’s oil product glut halves gasoline margins in 2 weeks

We are approaching the 2nd anniversary of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus, which began in August 2014: The initial movement was very sharp, with Brent falling 53% by January and the US$ rising 23% by March Oil then saw an initial correction – with Brent recovering to being 37% down by May during the “oil […]

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UK’s Brexit referendum is about peace and prosperity

40 years ago, the vast majority of the British people were in favour of joining the European Economic Community. 67% voted in favour, in the 1975 referendum to confirm the UK’s entry.  Virtually all mainstream politicians were in support, with only the left-wing of the Labour Party strongly anti on the grounds that it was […]

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Brexit vote will hit UK, Eurozone and global economies

Slowly, but surely, a UK vote to leave the European Union is becoming more likely.  In any referendum, the Yes campaign (in this case called Remain) have to argue a positive case.  But  this is not happening in the UK – and the vote is less than 3 months away.  Unsurprisingly, therefore, as the poll […]

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Great Unwinding creates Great Divergence in financial markets

Most traders prefer to be with the crowd – then, at least, they can’t be personally blamed if things go wrong.  Instead, they can claim that “nobody could have seen the change coming”.  So as we approach year-end, many traders are becoming very nervous as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus means that markets start […]

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Question mark

Q2 results highlight continued uncertainty over outlook

The chemical industry continues to be the best leading indicator we have for the global economy. Whilst stock markets were continuing to move higher during H1, its depressed level of capacity utilisation was signalling that the economy was far more fragile than generally realised. Company results for Q2 reflect this concern. Of course some, tied […]

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