Companies and investors often say “we don’t need to think about demographics – its too far in the future to matter”. This might have been true 20 years ago, but not today. As European chlorine industry demand confirms, the truth is that “history catches up with us”. The reason is simple. Europe stopped having enough […]
Tag Archives | fertility rate
In 2013, there were fewer births in the G7 countries – responsible for nearly 50% of the global economy – than in any year since the Great Depression year of 1933.* As the chart also shows, 1933 was an exception. Births bounced back immediately afterwards. But the low figure in 2013 is part of the declining trend seen since […]
“We have for many years addressed the very important issues of how to avoid becoming pregnant, how to avoid sexual diseases, how kids have a right to their own bodies, but we totally forgot to tell them we cannot have children forever.” Suddenly, and it does seem to be a sudden realisation, Western countries are beginning to […]
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. The industry is going through major difficulties, which is bad news not only for its suppliers of plastic and other components. It is also a problem for China, which manufactures 70% of the world’s toys. The toy industry is going through difficult […]
Slowly but surely, companies seem to be learning the hard way that demographics, not central bankers, drive demand. The blog is surprised this simple insight is still not widely understood. But the example of the global toy market highlights the paradigm shift underway: In 1950, there were 83m children aged between 0 – 4 years in the wealthy developed […]
The blog’s latest post for the Financial Times FT Data blog is below. February 13, 2014 2:22 pm by FT Two remarkable global demographic developments have occurred since 1950. Yet only recently have their impact on companies and the economy begun to be properly understood. Life expectancy has risen by 50 per cent since 1950 […]
Demographics drive demand. Developments since 1950 are thus creating massive and unprecedented change in global demand patterns, as the chart above highlights: Fertility rates (green) have halved on a global basis, with the average woman having just 2.5 children today Life expectancy (red) has increased by 50% over the same period, to average around 70 years […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.