Further evidence that the West is moving into a ‘new normal’ can be seen in the rising number of Napa Valley wineries facing foreclosures. The concept, adopted by the blog for its recent 2010 Outlook White Paper, suggests that the ‘conspicuous consumption’ seen in the West during the 2003-7 Boom is being replaced by more […]
Chemicals and the Economy
“Green shoots” of recovery disappear from sight
A year ago, Ben Bernanke (head of the US Federal Reserve), startled financial markets with his claim that “green shoots” of recovery were now visible. This helped to lead to a major stock market rally, based on the sentiment that the US and other western economies would quickly bounce back to 2003-7 growth levels. Observers […]
Boom/Gloom Index slips again
There has been no New Year recovery for the IeC Boom/Gloom Index. It (blue column) slipped again last month, and is now back at September’s level. A further fall in February would take it close to the levels seen before the dramatic rally in financial markets that began last March. Equally, the Green Shoots spotted […]
Buy on the rumour, sell on the news
“Buy on the rumour, sell on the news” is the classic indication of a weak market. A lack of follow-through buying reveals that market action is not supported by fundamentals, but only by sentiment and momentum. Friday’s 2.8% fall on the US S&P 500, in reaction to Thursday’s positive US GDP number, was therefore a […]
Green shoots disappear as new reality dawns
Sentiment is a very important influence in markets. When positive, as it has been since March, traders tend to ‘look through’ today’s problems to a brighter future. But at some point, reality needs to confirm this optimism. The IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) aims to measure these changes in sentiment. It correctly forecast March’s turning […]
Green shoots begin to disappear
September’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index© is slightly higher than August. But the ‘Green Shoots’ level (green line) has fallen sharply, indicating that sentiment has become less positive about the staying power of the recent rallies in financial markets. The index now includes a new reading for “frugal” (red line), as this may be worth watching in […]
Restocking continues, consumers become more frugal
There are clear signs in the above chart that the inventory cycle has turned positive again, as customers restock. Globally, data from the American Chemistry Council shows chemical production now down 10.5% versus last year, after being 13.4% down in March, in line with signs that GDP in the west is now stabilising. But will […]
Jump to page: