Tag Archives | gasoline demand

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“Its the oil price, stupid!”

Famously, when Bill Clinton ran his successful presidential campaign in 1992, his advisers would remind him of the key message with just one phrase “Its the economy, stupid!”. Today’s policymakers would do well to maintain a similar focus on the oil price, if they want to understand today’s lack of demand. Somehow, everyone seems to […]

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China’s polyethylene demand growth remains slow

There are increasing signs that China’s economic growth is slowing. Local gasoline and diesel prices are now (as in Europe) at record levels. Gasoline is Rmb 8.2/litre, the equivalent of $1.20/l, or $4.40/US gal. Unsurprisingly, this leaves people with very little spare cash, especially with food price inflation still at 6.2%. Equally, with rumours of […]

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EU auto sales hit new lows

Autos are now the single biggest market for petchem sales. They are also reported very quickly. So October’s EU auto sales provide the best real-time picture of the downturn now underway. As the chart shows: • October’s sales (red square) were the lowest in recent years • Total sales since January are also the lowest […]

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Wal-Mart says consumers under “more pressure”

The major retail groups are excellent indicators of future trends in chemical consumption. Since before the Crisis began, consumers have been focusing more on price and value-for money. Now Wal-Mart is reporting that consumers face “more pressure than a year ago“. This suggests that demand destruction is already well underway. And Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke […]

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Electric autos launched in the USA

The blog has been following the development of General Motors’ electric auto, the Volt, since October 2008. Its old friend, Pedro Spohr of Galp in Portugal, had highlighted how a move to electric autos had the potential to change naphtha balances for the chemical industry. So it is delighted to see that the Volt has […]

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China’s gasoline at record highs, EU’s close to peak

Crude oil prices have been rocketing lately. In turn, they have produced the seemingly ‘strong’ year-end for the chemical industry forecast by the blog in early November. At this point, there is a clear divergence of view. The blog’s bullish friends see this as a sign of a major recovery in demand, and confidently forecast […]

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Lower refining rates support EU petchem margins

Sometimes every cloud does have a silver lining. And that’s currently the case with the fall in demand for oil products. The European petchem industry is based on feedstock from refineries such as naphtha and LPG. And as the chart above from the IEA shows, German refinery runs, like others elsewhere in Europe, are down […]

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Lower Western gasoline demand helps paraxylene

Paraxylene (PX) has been a great petchem success story over the past 30 years. This 4th post in the blog’s series looks back at its history, and discusses how its future may develop. It is hard to remember that back in the 1970s, DMT (dimethyl terephthalate) was the main polyester material. But the superior properties […]

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Gasoline stocks at all-time high ahead of US driving season

They say that you learn more from your mistakes than your successes. In the blog’s case, it will never forget the mistake it made when it began to build a long position in early May, soon after arriving in Houston, Texas. It was expecting product to go tight as the US gasoline season began on […]

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Saudi cuts oil output below OPEC quota

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, now seems to be moving to Phase 2 of its efforts to achieve a $75 – $100bbl price range. As the blog noted in early December, the Saudis’ initial tactic was to play ‘hardball’ within OPEC. The aim was to ensure that other countries did not try to […]

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