The appalling tragedy in India reminds us that the Covid pandemic is very far from being solved. And more generally, the latest Ipsos ‘What worries the world’ global poll shows high levels of concern over unemployment, inequality, corruption and crime. 2/3rds of people think their country is heading on the wrong track: Pandemic concerns continue […]
Chemicals and the Economy
G7 Summit shows leaders are forgetting the lesson of the 1930s
G7 Summits began in the crisis years of the mid-1970s, bringing Western leaders together to tackle the big issues of the day – oil price crises, the Cold War with the Soviet Union and many others. Then, as stability returned in the 1980s with the BabyBoomer-led economic SuperCycle, they became forward-looking. The agenda moved to […]
Sunday is ‘moment of truth’ for Eurozone and Greece
“We should not forget the historic nature of what is at stake. “Its about whether a country can leave the euro zone and what that means for the future of an incomplete and flawed European Monetary Union. “Its about whether there may soon be a failed state in southeastern Europe with all the geopolitical consequences […]
German markets stumble as “Sell in May” theme continues
My 4 May post was titled “‘Sell in May and go away?’ as US, German bond yields jump“. Since then, US interest rates have continued to soar and the US stock market is starting to wobble, as I discussed last week. Now emerging markets are in the line of fire. $9.3bn was withdrawn last week – […]
Global stock markets still depend on low-cost money for support
The blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets highlights the narrow nature of the advance since September 2008, when the blog first began analysing developments. It shows their performance since the pre-Crisis peak for each market, and the performance of the US 30-year Treasury bond. Remarkably, only the US, India, Germany and the UK stock markets […]
Lanxess CEO departs as auto markets enter the New Normal
The blog, like most people, doesn’t like change. Change creates uncertainty, and makes us all nervous. Thus in recent years it has privately hoped that its forecasts about (a) the inevitability of the subprime crisis and (b) the transition to the New Normal, would prove wrong. Life would be so much easier if nothing changed. Thus it is distressed to see developments at […]
German New Olders have cash to spend, but few companies bother with their needs
Germany is the world’s 4th largest economy ($3.4tn), and so is the next to be studied in the blog’s series on the impact of demographics. Its population is almost as old as Japan’s: Germany’s median age is 45.7 years, compared with Japan at 45.8 years. The reason is shown in the chart above: German women have […]
“Disaster is still some way off” for Cyprus, as Germany prepares to vote
Back in April, the blog suggested that capital controls might remain for rather longer in Cyprus than the “few days or weeks” suggested by the central bank. And a month later, the bank was still unrealistically claiming they would be lifted “as soon as possible”. Today, the blog’s own view that they could be in place “for […]
Eurozone politicians have built a Tower of Babel
Last week saw the 20th EU ‘Crisis Summit’. Like the previous 19, it achieved little. Yet everyone at the meeting knew what had to be agreed: • A banking union which operates across national borders • The issuing of joint Eurozone bonds, guaranteed by all euro members • Adoption of a Federal budget and economic […]
EU auto sales fall again
April was another bad month for EU auto sales. As the chart shows, based on ACEA data, sales were down 7% in April (red square) and down 8% versus 2011 (green line) in January – April. The only bright spot remains Germany, were sales were up 2% in the Jan-Apr period. It is now 24% […]
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