Speaking today, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke produced some doleful figures about the current state of the US housing market. She noted that 25% of sub-prime loans, and 13% of near-prime loans, are now “seriously delinquent” – either 90 days overdue, or in foreclosure. The serious delinquency rate for prime mortgages is now over 3%, […]
Tag Archives | housing
Yet again, as in October, ‘buy on the rumour, sell on the news’ has been the financial markets’ reaction to the latest efforts to solve the financial crisis. A 5% fall on Wall Street last night, in response to the Geithner plan, tells its own story. The blog is also unconvinced that this further $2.5 […]
The emerging economies, which built their growth on exports to the West, are being badly hit by the global recession. Brazil, where poverty levels were at their lowest level for 30 years, is now seeing recent gains unwind. Its exports fell 29% in January, the biggest drop since 1991. This followed a terrible December, when […]
Global chemical production is now falling at an alarming rate, down over 4% in November, as core demand from housing/construction and auto markets collapses. Only the Middle East is now seeing positive growth year-on-year. As the chart shows (using ACC data): • N America is now down 12% • W Europe/C&E Europe are down over […]
In early October, I forecast that we were about to revisit “the scariest moment of my 30 year chemical career”, adding that: “The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand […]
Asia is hard-hit by the downturn in the Western economy. Today, China said its Q4 GDP had grown just 6.8%, the slowest level since 2001. This led premier Wen Jiabao to say the outlook for jobs was “very grim”. It also increased speculation that China will devalue the renmimbi, which would increase trade tensions within […]
Bond markets are a good place to look if you want to understand the outlook for major companies in the chemical industry. A key market is in ‘credit default swaps’ (CDS), which offer insurance against the possibility that a company might default. The way they work is that the owner of a bond, or a […]
The new ACC weekly report rightly notes that “any economic recovery will likely begin with a turnaround in the residential housing situation”. This is also the critical issue for the chemical industry, still reeling from last week’s Lyondell bankruptcy filing. Yet as the ACC’s chart shows above, no improvement is yet in sight. New home […]
The blog is now 18 months old. It has a truly global readership, and as shown in the above map, is now read in 1244 cities and 89 countries. Its aim has always been to identify ‘the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months’, and to ‘develop useful […]
The UK is expected to build just 135,000 houses this year, compared to 203,500 in 2007. This is the lowest level since 1924, when 87.000 houses were being built (excluding the war period). The outlook for 2009 is also poor, as many current projects date from before the start of the financial crisis. In turn, […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.