Tag Archives | IEA

IEA says market “awash with oil” – debunks bullish myths

Oil markets are the proverbial “canary in the coalmine”.  They are showing us what happens when the rose-tinted glasses provided by stimulus policy are removed.  Now markets have to return to their true role of price discovery, based on the fundamentals of supply and demand. This makes them very dangerous indeed.  Some large players in […]

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IEA Sept15

Oil stocks at record levels as demand growth slows, supply rises

OECD oil inventories have never been higher.  They were 2.9mb at the end of July, and are expected to have risen further since then, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency: In terms of days of forward cover, they are now at 63 days in the OECD overall They are at 68 days in […]

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EU olefin operating rates slip back to 81%

The latest EU olefin operating rates (OR%) were very disappointing, even though they were not a surprise. As the chart shows, ethylene rates were just 81% (based on APPE data). They were far below the 90%+ rates that were normal before the crisis began. These rates would normally have left the industry in crisis mode […]

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IEA forecasts show high oil prices destroy demand

Over the past 18 months, the main investment analysts have argued that high oil prices would have no impact on the global economy. Now, new forecasts suggest their optimism has been misplaced. The chart above gives the International Energy Agency’s latest forecast of likely oil demand growth this year: • It has been reduced by […]

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Crude oil inventories at high levels

The blog’s argument that there is no shortage of crude oil seems finally to be going mainstream. Equally, its concern over the impact of today’s high prices, especially by comparison with natural gas, is also now starting to be highlighted. Thus the Wall Street Journal notes: “Oil inventories in the Western world are now high. […]

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Saudi comments increase oil market uncertainty

The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed the blog’s worst fears this week, with its announcement that crude oil demand actually fell by 300kbd in Q4. Not only is this “quite rare” as the IEA noted, but they went on to warn: “We’re flagging that there are clearly downside risks to the global economy and to […]

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“Rising oil prices threaten economic recovery”, IEA

The blog has gained important support for its view that oil prices are too high. and threaten the current economic recovery. In an interview with the Financial Times, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has spelled out its view that “oil prices are entering a dangerous zone for the global […]

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Europe olefin operating rates remain at 82%

Q3 showed no real improvement in European cracker operating rates (OR%). As the chart shows, based on APPE data, these remained at 82% for the Q1 – Q3 period. Of course, this is much better than the 76% OR% seen in 2009, but it would not normally be a matter for celebration. However, the ‘silver […]

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Lower refining rates support EU petchem margins

Sometimes every cloud does have a silver lining. And that’s currently the case with the fall in demand for oil products. The European petchem industry is based on feedstock from refineries such as naphtha and LPG. And as the chart above from the IEA shows, German refinery runs, like others elsewhere in Europe, are down […]

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IEA, OPEC, worry about high oil prices and CO2

The new World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) spells out two major challenges. It: • “Identifies higher oil prices, coupled with the downturn in oil sector investment, as a serious threat to the world economy, just as it is beginning to recover“. • Suggests that “a profound transformation of the energy sector” […]

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