Tag Archives | India

China auto sales jump to meet pollution quota deadline

China’s auto sales moved past Europe’s in 2010, and are now close to US levels.  But even China is not expected to maintain this surge in 2014.  As the chart above shows, sales soared in the past few months (red line) versus 2012 (green).  But as the automotive association explains, this was mainly because: “Panic consumption over […]

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Brazil, Russia, India car sales fall for first time in 10 years

Since 2009, the 4 BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have been the focus of every car manufacturers’ dreams.  Whilst the West worried about ageing populations and its financial crisis, the BRICs seemed to have moved into a new dimension. Today, however, reality is beginning to set in: Auto sales in Brazil (the world’s […]

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India’s onion harvest boosts auto sales: Japan’s sales gently decline

The blog’s pre-Budget Outlook review of the major auto markets concludes today with Japan and India.  Together they are 10% of the global market.  But their development is an excellent example of how reality can overtake the wishful thinking of policymakers: Japan (red line) is the larger market.  It has lived through countless government stimulus […]

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Oil market hype fails to take prices out of their triangle

Pity for a moment those poor souls whose income depends on finding ever-more creative ways of justifying today’s record levels of oil prices.  One by one, all their favourite stories have disappeared.  Even the traditional summer warnings of record hurricane disruption have so far failed to deliver. How different it is from the start of the crisis, when the […]

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India’s auto industry “continues towards downwards path”

Car companies are normally optimistic.  You rarely hear them saying that things are saying that things are bad – they prefer instead to focus on how things are just about to get better. This makes recent statements by India’s auto manufacturers association even more remarkable.  August sales data was announced in a press release headed “Auto Industry […]

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Demand growth stalls as stimulus effects prove temporary

As executives return to their desks this week, they face some difficult judgement calls.  As the chart shows, markets have been worryingly quiet over the summer.  Most products in the IeC benchmark portfolio are unchanged.  Only Brent crude oil and naphtha have moved higher - due to Syria concerns - whilst benzene has moved lower.  But even these are relatively minor movements. This […]

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Financial markets worry as Fed talks of ending stimulus

After 5 years of government stimulus, policymakers are having to think about their exit plans.  US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke retires in January, and most of the blog’s clients in the financial community believe that he intends to start the process before he leaves, perhaps as early as next month. This is likely to prove very scary […]

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India autos May13.png

India’s auto sales fall for record 6th month

As the above chart shows, India’s auto sales have now fallen for the last 6 months versus the previous year. According to India’s auto association, this has never happened before (sales data was first collected in March 1998). This is another symptom of India’s slowing GDP growth, with the government estimating Q1′s level at just […]

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India autos Apr13.png

India’s auto sales enter the New Normal

India is the 3rd largest Asian auto market after China and Japan, and a year ago its automobile association was confidently forecasting annual demand growth of 10%-12%. Instead, sales have fallen 7% (India uses an April-March year) – the first time annual sales have fallen for a decade. As Reuters notes: “Carmakers in India, two […]

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India autos Feb13.png

India’s auto sales drop as onion prices rocket

Unrealistic expectations lead to disappointment. That seems to be the learning from developments in India’s economy in recent years. Its car sales provide a good illustration of the problem, as the above chart shows: • Sales took off in 2010-11, as stimulus measures supported the ‘Incredible India’ media hype • But by 2012 (green line) […]

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