Tag Archives | India

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Reliance offers c$10bn for LyondellBasell (Update 1)

LyondellBasell (LBI) yesterday confirmed the rumoured takeover bid from Reliance. In a statement posted on its website, it says it has “received a preliminary non-binding offer from Reliance Industries Limited to acquire for cash a controlling interest in the company contemporaneously with the company’s emergence from Chapter 11 reorganization“. It noted “this offer is in […]

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China’s oil imports not driven by domestic demand

A key driver for the rally in crude oil markets has been the increase in China’s demand. The assumption has been that this confirms economic growth is recovering strongly. Crude oil imports have certainly been rising since Q1, and have recently averaged 500kbpd more than 2008. Refinery runs have also been higher. However, new analysis […]

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Weak monsoon hits India’s economic recovery

Monsoon rainfall accounts for 60% of farm irrigation in India, Asia’s 3rd largest economy. This monsoon season, it has so far been about 2/3rds of the 10 year average. Last week it was 56% below normal. Although agriculture accounts for just 17% of the economy, the lack of rainfall will also damage the whole rural […]

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US and EU dominate global consumption

Interesting new research from Prof Nouriel Roubini provides some perspective on relative levels of consumer spending around the world: • US private consumption accounted for 16% of total global output in 2008 • It was valued at $10trn, just ahead of European consumption at $9trn • Total Asian consumption was under $5trn • China’s consumption […]

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OPEC says oil market still “fundamentally weak”

The latest OPEC monthly oil report paints a bearish picture of the market. It expects OPEC to supply 28.4mbd in 2009, down 7.5% from 2008 levels. And it forecasts more of the same for 2010, expecting to supply just 28 mbd. Its analysis suggests that “the market is still fundamentally weak amid ample stocks of […]

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World Bank sees deeper recession

The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog’s oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often an important factor in his overall analysis. So it is no great surprise that the […]

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Asian exports collapse – Japan’s fall 46%

Japan’s exports fell 46% in January, after a 35% fall in December. Exports to the US fell 53%, and to China fell 45%. This makes it likely that Japan’s economy will shrink further, after the 3.3% decline in 2008. It could soon become the first G-7 economy to fall into depression – defined as a […]

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Germany’s industrial orders collapse 29%

There is little justice in today’s recession. Countries that saved hard, and avoided reckless lending, are seeing their economies collapse as fast as those that spent as if there was no tomorrow. Thus Germany is now following the path already trodden by other export-oriented economies, such as Japan and most of the emerging economies. As […]

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ExxonMobil says older plants need to shut

Restructuring will become an important issue for the chemical industry, according to John Verity, ExxonMobil’s polyolefins head. Speaking to ICIS news, he was downbeat about short-term prospects, noting that whilst some restocking is currently underway, “we are not likely to see any real demand until the end of the quarter”. Earlier, in his speech to […]

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The global stock market decline

Alan Greenspan’s comments (below), led the blog to investigate how the world’s major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6 – 12 months ahead, and so this represents a negative indicator for future chemical demand. Also […]

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