This is Budget week, when the blog prepares to present its Budget Outlook for 2014-16. On Saturday, it reviewed its 2012 forecast. And starting tomorrow, it will analyse auto markets – as these are the largest single driver of demand - before issuing its 2014 Outlook next Saturday. The chart above presents the dilemma facing companies, […]
Tag Archives | industrial production
German Chancellor Merkel’s recent comment that “I don’t see anything which signals a recession in Germany” is just one sign of the current complacency about the global economy within the Western political elite. Long-standing readers will remember Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke 2009-10 work comparing today’s Great Recession with the Depression of the 1930s. Worryingly, the […]
Last June, the blog noted research by Profs Eichengreen and O’Rourke that compared the current Crisis to the Great Depression. They have now updated their work to February 2010, 22 months after the Crisis began. The positive news is that the stimulus measures taken by governments have caused world industrial production to recover. As they […]
Leading indicators are useful reference tools, but sometimes they can also mislead. The chart above, from the ACC’s excellent weekly report, seems to provide a good example of this problem. The blue line shows the official Leading Indicator for the OECD area plus the 6 major non-OECD countries. It suggests that a strong recovery is […]
Sweden is an influential adviser on credit crunch issues. This is because of the lessons it learned during its own major banking collapse in the early 1990′s, which has close parallels with today’s global crisis. Its central bank argues that the main risk now facing the world is deflation, not inflation. It points to the […]
There is little justice in today’s recession. Countries that saved hard, and avoided reckless lending, are seeing their economies collapse as fast as those that spent as if there was no tomorrow. Thus Germany is now following the path already trodden by other export-oriented economies, such as Japan and most of the emerging economies. As […]
Industrial production is the key indicator for chemical sales. And it appears a significant decline is now underway in manufacturing. The chart shows August’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for most of the major countries/regions. India, Switzerland, Greece and Brazil were the only ones showing expansion. Reporting on the eurozone figures this morning, the Financial Times […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.