Suddenly, businesses across Europe are waking up to the realisation that the UK is currently on course to leave the European Union (EU) on 29 March next year, without a deal on trade and customs. As Katherine Bennett, the UK boss of aerospace giant, Airbus, warned on Friday: “This is not project fear, this is […]
Chemicals and the Economy
2018 will see Winners and Losers appear in plastics markets
Two major challenges face petrochemical and polymer producers and consumers in 2018: The likely disruption created by the arrival of the ethylene/polyethylene expansions in the US The growth of the circular economy and the need to dramatically increase recycling capacity My new interview with Will Beacham, deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business, focuses on both […]
Goodbye to “business as usual” model for plastics
Polymer markets face two major challenges in coming months. The most immediate is the arrival of the major US shale gas-based ethylene and polyethylene expansions. The longer-term, but equally critical challenge, comes from growing public concern over plastic waste, particularly in the ocean. The EU has set out its vision for a new plastics economy, where: “All plastic packaging is reusable or […]
Difficult times ahead for US polyethylene exports as business models change
This wasn’t the chart that companies and investors expected to see when they were busy finalising $bns of investment in new US ethylene and polyethylene (PE) capacity back in 2013-4. They were working on 3 core assumptions, which they were sure would make these investments vastly profitable: Oil prices would always be above $100/bbl and […]
Grangemouth develops cluster-based vision for the future
Exactly a year ago this week, the INEOS petrochemical business at Grangemouth in Scotland was facing closure. This would have been a disaster for the thousands of people employed directly and indirectly, as well as for Scotland. The blog was very closely involved in helping to achieve a successful outcome alongside the Scottish and UK governments, INEOS and the UNITE […]
Who will finance the debt rollovers and new US ethylene crackers?
A blog reader has kindly forwarded an interesting paper from AT Kearney, which looks at the amount of debt due to be refinanced in the chemical industry over the next 5 years. As ATK note: “The restructuring and debt buildup that occurred in the chemicals industry from 2006 – 2008 was extraordinary—more than $330bn in deals […]
European cracker margins at ‘top of cycle levels’
European cracker margins are currently “at top of cycle levels” according to INEOS last week. But as the above chart shows (based on APPE data), they remain supported by supply issues rather than demand. Operating rates actually slipped to 81% in H1, a figure more normally associated with a downturn. Detailed output figures for Q2 […]
PetroChina offer $1bn for INEOS European refining JV
INEOS have today announced that PetroChina have made an “irrevocable offer of $1.015bn for a 50% share in its European refining business“. This is an excellent price, given the current weak performance of the European refining industry. INEOS’ negotiating team have clearly done a superb job in ensuring that PetroChina looked beyond these difficulties, and […]
INEOS plans refining/technology JVs with PetroChina
The Falkirk Herald, INEOS’s local newspaper in Scotland, has had to wait a long time for its ‘scoop’ of June 2009 to be confirmed. It had reported then that INEOS was in talks with PetroChina about the future of the Grangemouth refinery. As PetroChina noted at the time, “downstream business has a poor margin nowadays […]
BASF, INEOS establish €5bn Styrolution JV
The styrene business has been increasingly difficult in recent years: • CD and video sales went online, removing the need for polystyrene (PS) packaging • Prices for the main feedstock, benzene, leapt in the mid-2000’s, due to US gasoline market changes, forcing convertors to look at alternatives such as polypropylene • Recycling became an essential […]
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