Central banks and investors believed stimulus programs had created a “New Paradigm” where asset prices would always increase. Now they are starting to realise that stimulus is irrelevant against the 3 Horsemen of the Apocalypse – China’s continuing battle with the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and potential for famine as rising gas/fertilizer prices mean farmers can’t afford to grow their crops or feed their animals.
Chemicals and the Economy
IEA issue 10-point plan to cut oil demand – and promote Electric Vehicles and recycled plastics
These are difficult times, and there is no guarantee that they may not get worse. But they also remind us of the critical need to move beyond the Age of Oil, and develop more sustainable energy resources for the future.
Everyone “knows” that the Fed will never let markets fall – and that China will never burst its real estate bubble
Our pH Report Sentiment Index has been a very reliable guide to the S&P 500 in recent years. Now it is suggesting a major downturn may be underway as the US and Chinese stimulus programmes come to an end.
The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
OPEC+ faces difficult decisions as Covid returns, recession risks rise, and oil prices crash
OPEC+ oil producers saw prices tumble $10/bbl (13%) on Friday as the world woke up to the fact that the next phase of the pandemic may be underway. And this is not the only challenge that they face. OIL PRICES HAVE ONLY BEEN HELD UP BY MAJOR SUPPLY CUTBACKS The first is the challenge from […]
Plastics producers need to move to recycled feedstocks as Western refineries start to close
Plastics producers are now being squeezed from both ends of the value chain. Upstream, the growing demand for Electric Vehicles is starting to lead to refinery closures, reducing feedstock availability. Downstream, brand owners are stepping up the pressure for increased use of recycled plastic, as the new Global Commitment report from the Ellen Macarthur Foundation […]
‘Watch out below!’ as supply chain chaos comes to an end
“What goes up, comes down” is usually a good motto when prices start to reach for the skies. As the great investor Bob Farrell noted in his 10 Rules, they usually go further than you think. But they don’t then correct by going sideways. The charts showing US lumber prices, China coal prices and the […]
Xi aims to “bring order out of chaos” by bursting China’s property bubble
China is at the start of its biggest economic shake-up since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping launched his post-Mao reform programme. President Xi Jinping’s ‘Common Prosperity’ policy aims to retain his focus on increasing living standards. But it wants to spread the wealth far more widely. The electricity rationing now underway across China highlights the need […]
Businesses set for transformation as supply chain chaos combines with Net Zero targets
‘Business as usual’ seems a most unlikely outcome as we look forward over the next 6 months. The pandemic may well bring further trials for us to endure. We also have to set budgets for the next few years, and so we will need new strategies and business models to respond to the Net Zero […]
“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell
In January, “everyone knew” that inflation was about to take off, and that the US$ was going to collapse. Last week, the great Bob Farrell’s Rule No 9 proved its worth, yet again. US interest rates fell sharply and the US$ bottomed for this cycle. The two charts above tell the story – because they […]
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