Are you worried about the future direction of interest rates, and what they may mean for your pension, your family and your company? Then the chart above, showing 300 years of UK government bond yields, may just be helpful. It will probably also surprise you, as it contradicts the opinions of most ‘expert commentators’. These […]
Tag Archives | interest rates
This week marks the opening of the 3rd London Olympics. To celebrate, the blog today looks at developments in government bond yields since the 1st London Games in 1908. On Thursday, it will look at GDP per capita changes since the 2nd London Games in 1948. In 1908, UK interest rates were the benchmark for […]
Global bond investors have found a new worry. 10 year interest rates in Spain, the world’s 12th largest economy, have risen alarmingly in recent weeks. As the chart shows, they are now above 7% (blue column) compared to 4% when the blog first focused on the Eurozone crisis (red). 7% is a critical level, as […]
The blog’s series on the VUCA world today reaches C for Complexity. Interest rates are key to company profitability. They determine rates of return for new investments, and their affordability. They also have a major influence on consumer spending patterns. The debate over their future direction is just one example of current Complexity: • Financial […]
Interest rates are key to the direction of the global economy. But not in the way that was true during the 1982-2007 economic SuperCycle. Then, there was a global surplus of savings, due to the vast numbers of people in the Wealth Creating 25 – 54 age group. So interest rates reduced dramatically in most […]
Stock markets around the world are at an important crossroads. The blog’s regular <a href="http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2010/09/global-markets-decoupled-over.6 monthly review compares today’s market levels with their 2007/8 pre-Crisis peaks. And as can be seen, none have yet hit a new high. This is quite surprising, given the scale of the G20 and central bank stimulus/liquidity packages over the […]
UK housing markets followed the US lead in recent decades. Conservative and Labour governments both shared a belief in extending property ownership as widely as possible. But what neither foresaw was the ‘unintended consequence’. Their policy of boosting home ownership coincided with the entry of the BabyBoom generation (those born between 1946-70) into the 25 […]
The UK housing market has presented a confusing picture over the past 2 years. Unlike Spain, Ireland, or the USA, the lax lending conditions of the Boom years did not seem to lead to major price falls. In fact, along with Australia (benefiting from China’s commodity boom), UK prices even appeared to recover. This was […]
The blog is very pleased to have been invited to write for today’s Financial Times. Its article looks at the influence of the Western ‘baby-boom generation’, born between 1946-70. Typically, as in the UK, the period saw a 25% jump in the number of births compared to pre-War levels. Since 1970, births have fallen back […]
The blog’s 6 monthly survey of major stock markets, now including the US 30 year Treasury bond, shows mixed performance since March: • The worst performers have been Shanghai and Tokyo, down ~12%. They are also the worst performers since the pre-Crisis peak, down ~50%. • In the middle are the US, UK, Russia and […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.