Tag Archives | Iran

US, Iran to sell oil in January as Libya ramps up volumes

Both the US and Iran are likely to be moving oil into world markets early in the New Year. The lifting of the US export ban has led to early announcements of oil sales: Vitol will move the first cargo via the Enterprise terminal in Houston in early January.  Iran is expecting to have sanctions lifted around the same […]

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Iran deal highlights “massively oversupplied” oil market

The oil market was the first to feel the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus nearly a year ago.  It had completely lost its key role of price discovery due to the liquidity being supplied by the central banks.  This had overwhelmed the fundamentals of supply/demand.  And we are still living with the consequences […]

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H1 sees worst-ever number of chemical plant force majeures

The first half of 2015 was the worst half-year for force majeures in the chemical industry since reliable data became available via ICIS news in 2005.  As the chart shows, there were 479 reports of outages, more than double H1 2014 and well above the previous peak of 375 in H1 2011. This is absolutely […]

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Hedge funds moving away from ‘buy on the dips’ strategy

In recent years, financial markets have believed that “everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds“.  Good news has taken markets higher.  So has bad news – as investors assume policymakers will apply more stimulus. As a result, a whole generation of managers and analysts has grown up without having to learn the fundamentals of supply/demand analysis.  And […]

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OPEC faces New Normal dilemma as oil demand slows

Yesterday’s post described how OPEC oil producers are seeing their export sales to the US start to disappear.  But this, of course, is only one side of the story.  As the chart from the Wall Street Journal shows, Saudi needs a $93/bbl oil price to balance its budget.  Most of OPEC needs a higher price.  Only Kuwait, UAE and Qatar need […]

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Iran talks offer hope on oil prices

Iran has been at the centre of all the major oil market price spikes in the past few decades: Today’s record prices on an annual basis are partly due to market fears over supply disruptions due to the Iran/Israel nuclear issue Fears over a nuclear showdown also led prices to jump to $150/bbl in July 2008, when the […]

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Oil prices fall as West, Saudi, pressure Iran

Oil markets have weakened significantly since they fell out of their major ‘triangle’ formation earlier this month. WTI is already within the forecast $60-80/bbl range although, as the chart shows, Brent still maintains a $10/bbl premium at $90/bbl. Of course, charts can only display the change in sentiment and direction. They cannot explain why it […]

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Oil slips back into the triangle, as QE3 is postponed

Remarkably, crude oil prices are continuing to trade in their triangle formation. As the chart shows, they tried to break out higher in recent weeks. But there was no follow-through. The high-frequency traders were clearly hoping the US Federal Reserve would announce a new round of quantitative easing (QE3), and provide the firepower for a […]

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Oil prices hit the top of their triangle

Oil prices are poised at a critical point. As the chart shows, the recent rally has taken them to the top of the triangle formation that has built up over the past decade. Players now need to decide if they are confident enough to push prices into higher ground. A lot of different reasons have […]

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Saudi comments increase oil market uncertainty

The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed the blog’s worst fears this week, with its announcement that crude oil demand actually fell by 300kbd in Q4. Not only is this “quite rare” as the IEA noted, but they went on to warn: “We’re flagging that there are clearly downside risks to the global economy and to […]

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