Tag Archives | lending

$20tn US, China stimulus and lending – but recovery elusive

Despite all the positive headlines, the world’s two largest economies have failed to deliver sustained recovery, even though the 2 governments have now spent a combined $20tn in stimulus and lending. US STIMULUS REACHES $10tn The US government and Federal Reserve have spent $10tn since the Great Recession began in 2008.  Federal deficits have increased by $6.27tn, whilst […]

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China GDP reports remain “man-made and therefore unreliable”

The blog got 54.8m results from Google when it entered the phrase “China GDP” this week.  The only problem, seemingly unrecognised by most analysts, is that China’s GDP report is a completely fictitious number, invented by the leadership each quarter to suit its own narrative. This sounds a bold statement, but it isn’t: China is the only country to […]

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China focuses on domestic PE production, ME/SEA imports

China’s growth has been the main support for the global economy since the Crisis began in Q4 2008.  The slide above captures the extent of this in polyethylene (PE), one of the world’s largest chemical markets, based on data from China’s chemical association and Global Trade Information Services: The total market grew 11% in the 3 […]

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And now the stumble?

Last week the US Federal Reserve announced the second move in its so-called tapering process, and reduced its bond buying by another $10bn/month.  But there was only a temporary repeat in stock markets of the enthusiastic response to its first reduction in December.  We are thus about to test whether the blog’s theory of ‘two steps and a […]

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China loans Sept13

China lending remains out of control ahead of November’s plenum

The blog’s views on the unsustainability of China’s epic economic growth since 2009 have now become truly mainstream.  Everyone now agrees, including the new leadership, that it was created by a credit bubble.  State-owned China Daily has even now warned that a commercial property bubble potentially now exists alongside the residential bubble and the infrastructure ‘white elephants’, adding: “Once […]

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