Suddenly, people are starting to talk about China and the risks it creates for the global economy. There is a lifecycle to the way that such issues develop in the general consciousness, as John Mauldin has observed. And so this development suggests that we are now well along the process, as highlighted in the chart above: […]
Tag Archives | Li Keqiang
China has been primarily responsible for driving global growth since the Crisis began in 2008. Auto sales, for example, would have seen negative growth world-wide without China. And auto manufacturing is the world’s largest manufacturing industry. The chemical industry has been in a similar position. Whilst China is also now responsible for nearly 50% of global […]
President Jiang Zemin inherited a difficult economic and political situation when taking power in 1993, as did Deng in 1977 and current president Xi last year. Jiang had to set in motion China’s second economic cycle of the post-Mao era, or risk seeing the country fall back into poverty and the political turmoil of another Cultural Revolution. Similarly today, […]
Its all about jobs. That’s the clear message from this month’s critical Economic Plenum in China, confirming the blog’s analysis back in February 2012. Of course, there was a lot of detail about future reform plans, which will certainly help to move the country’s economy in the right direction. But in the short-term, the key […]
As promised, the blog today looks at the impact of former President Jiang Zemin’s return to active politics during the recent leadership transition. Its monitoring of expert commentary inside and outside China suggests he has achieved 4 major changes: • Corruption. Countries cannot progress if corruption dominates daily life. Thus it seems critically important that […]
How many more empty cities like Ordos does China really need? Are 64.5m empty apartments enough, or should there be more? Should we build more steel mills, to add to the current 220MT of over-capacity? These are the questions facing China’s leadership today, as they debate the economic slowdown. Growth has slowed to a relative […]
China’s slowdown is continuing to gather pace. Polyethylene (PE) demand has been a very reliable leading indicator for the economy. Its 50% growth between 2008-10 highlighted the overheating economy, as the government stoked a credit bubble, even whilst official GDP growth reports were reassuringly low. GDP numbers, however are merely targets. Likely future premier Li […]
China’s economy ended 2010 on yet another high. As the chart shows, bank lending (red column) and electricity consumption (blue line), remained very strong: • Electricity usage was up 15% in 2010 versus 2009 • Bank lending was RMB 7.9trn ($1.2trn), above the RMB 7.5trn target The change since the start of the Crisis is […]
70% of China’s women regard “housing, a stable income and some savings” as vital for any man wanting to get married. And they probably don’t regard architect Dai Haifei’s $300 Beijing ‘egg house’ (pictured) as their ideal. The data comes from the “2010 China Marital Status Report“, which adds that the man’s personality and morals […]
The blog is awarding itself a pat on the back today, for its decision to focus on electricity consumption and bank lending as key indicators for China’s economy. According to the Wall Street Journal, these are 2 of the only 3 statistics used by China’s Vice Premier, Li Keqiang (the other is rail cargo). Li’s […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.