They don’t ring bells at market tops, to warn about what might happen next. But the above chart may turn out to be the next best thing. It shows the relationship between WTI crude oil prices (blue line) versus LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene, red line) on China’s Dalian futures exchange. The exchange has been […]
Tag Archives | LLDPE
China’s Dalian futures market has become a hotbed of speculation over the past 2 years, since the government doubled bank lending to $1.4trn during 2009, equal to 1/3rd of GDP. Traders have particularly focused on the assumed linkage between LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) and crude oil, with price movements mirroring each other most months. […]
China’s Dalian futures market has been attracting world headlines recently, with its status as China’s leading market for chemical futures being confirmed. As such, one would expect its pricing for the two major polymers traded, LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) and PVC, to follow similar patterns. But this seems not to be the case. The […]
China’s Dalian futures market has been the global centre of speculative polymers trading for over a year. It traded an amazing 80 million tonnes of LLDPE in April 2009, as excitement built. And volume (blue line) remained positive on a year-on-year basis until January. But since then, comparisons have been negative: • February’s volumes were […]
China’s Dalian polymer futures market continues to have a major influence on regional, and global, polyethylene markets. But November’s trading volume was lower than a year ago, at 25 million tonnes. This is the first negative annual growth since volume took off in June last year. Last month, the blog noted a comment from LyondellBasell […]
China’s perceived demand has been the major driving force behind the rallies in financial and commodities markets this year. It has also attracted large volumes of polymer imports. But this wishful thinking ignores the fundamental issue that China’s economy is relatively small (just $4trn in a world economy of $60trn) and is 104th in terms […]
Q2 saw an outburst of speculative frenzy all around the world, and in a wide variety of financial markets. China’s Dalian futures market saw LLDPE volume soar to 80 million tonnes – around 4 times total annual world demand. China’s easy money policy meant it was easy to borrow to speculate on a quick recovery. […]
The price of a product is a key factor in determining the profitability of producing and using it. And a transparent pricing structure encourages liquidity, which enables price discovery to take place more easily between buyers and sellers. This is why I have long been a supporter of the London Metals Exchange (LME) initiative to […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.