This is Budget Outlook week in the blog. And for the rest of the week, it is looking at a key issue in a major Region. Today, it highlights the US housing market. This used to be a $35bn market for chemicals, with up to 2.2m housing starts a year, each worth $16k in sales. […]
Tag Archives | new normal
The above chart, from the excellent American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report, shows how Operating Rates (OR%) have changed in the global chemical industry since 1989. From 1994 – 2003, they were broadly in an 87% – 93% range. They then moved up to a seemingly stable 92% – 94% range until 2008, before crashing […]
When elephants fight, those around them need to be cautious. And this is the prospect for 2011-13, as the Western countries try to force the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to export less and import more, the so-called ‘rebalancing’ strategy. Thus Budgeting for Uncertainty seems the right title for the blog’s annual Outlook for […]
The Bank of England has become the first major central bank to endorse the argument that we are moving towards a ‘New Normal’. In an important speech this week, its Governor Mervyn King, set out the argument that we can look forward to: “a SOBER decade – a decade of Savings, Orderly Budgets, and Equitable […]
EU auto sales were better in September than in either July or August. But ‘better’, of course, is a relative word these days. As the chart shows, they were only down 10% versus 2009 levels, whereas July and August were down 19% and 13% respectively. But in terms of absolute volume, sales at 1.2m were […]
The blog will publish its annual Budget Outlook for 2011 next weekend. And so as usual, its now time to review last year’s Outlook. Past performance may not be a perfect guide to future outcomes. But it is one of the best that we have. The 2010 Outlook was titled ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’, […]
More evidence is emerging of the major changes taking place in Western retailing as we transition to the New Normal. Last week, my fellow blogger Doris de Guzman reported from the World Detergents conference that: • P&G’s CEO Robert McDonald noted that in “the last 18 months, 60% of all new laundry and detergent products […]
The blog is very pleased to have been invited to write for today’s Financial Times. Its article looks at the influence of the Western ‘baby-boom generation’, born between 1946-70. Typically, as in the UK, the period saw a 25% jump in the number of births compared to pre-War levels. Since 1970, births have fallen back […]
The blog is a great fan of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers. They were the first people to spot the housing bust developing in the USA, and to suggest the scale of the damage it might cause. More recently, they have pioneered the concept of the ‘new normal’. Thus a new analysis by […]
The blog is delighted by the interest being shown in its White Paper ‘Budgeting for a New Normal’ and the recent Mid-Year Update. Almost 7000 copies have now been downloaded. Discussions are also underway with ICIS about producing a new White Paper in Q4, to accompany the blog’s annual Budget Outlook post in October. If […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.