Tag Archives | new normal

US PE trade May13.png

US shale gas – ‘its a demand thing’

The 25 years of the BabyBoomer demand supercycle between 1983-2007 cover the careers of most people in the industry. Over this quarter-century, we all grew to accept that low-cost and reliable supply was key to success. Demand would always take care of itself. Today’s world is the opposite. Low-cost supply is no longer enough on […]

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Sustaining Growth as the West Arrives at the Demographic Cliff

Are you worried about the economic outlook for your company, for your family and for your country? Do you suspect that current policies may be doing more harm than good? Are you interested in exploring a new analysis that focuses on the importance of people, rather than the results of computer modelling? Over the past […]

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Upcoming presentations on New Normal themes

The blog is delighted to have been asked to address a wide variety of industry and investor conferences over the next few months. The arguments of our ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ eBook are clearly starting to make sense to an increasing number of people. Details of the main events are below, and hopefully […]

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Pimco says demographics turning boom to bust

The head of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers, provides influential support this month for the blog’s argument in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ about the importance of today’s demographic changes. Bill Gross comments as follows in his new Investment Outlook: “Demography is destiny, and like cancer, demographic population changes are becoming a […]

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The blog on CNBC Africa

The blog was interviewed on CNBC Africa’s ‘Beyond Markets’ programme last week, during its visit to AECI in Johannesburg. Hosted by Karema Brown, the programme focuses on the news that drives markets across the continent. The 3 minute interview discussed the new business models that are now essential to drive future growth in Africa and […]

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Companies need to plan for slower global growth

As promised, the blog looks today at the business implications of population ageing and slower economic growth. The chart shows official US household expenditure data, by category. The overall message is clear: spending peaks by the age of 55 years, and then falls away quite sharply as people age. This matters because household consumption is […]

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The end of constant growth

“You cannot just sit back and expect things to happen the way they have happened in the past, especially in emerging markets.” This insight from a senior Hong Kong-based executive with a global polyethylene (PE) producer highlights the risks faced by the global industry as we transition to the New Normal. As he added during […]

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Fashion discovers the New Old 55+ generation

Slowly, consumer companies are waking up to the fact that youth markets have gone ex-growth in the developed world. Instead, the New Old 55+ generation are the main potential source of growth. As fashion editor Vanessa Friedman notes, a new film ‘About Face’ typifies the new approach. It interviews supermodels – but these supermodels are […]

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ATK ageing Nov11.png

80 is the new 60, as youth markets go ex-growth

The G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA) account for nearly 50% of global GDP. Today, however, their populations are ageing rapidly. As consultants AT Kearney (ATK) note in a report on consumer spending patterns: • The G7 now has more people over the age of 55 than under 15 years • Global […]

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US consumers enter the New Normal

The chart above opens chapter 7 of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, which looks at the changes taking place in consumer markets. June’s US retail sales provide clear evidence of the trends it describes: • They grew at the slowest pace in 2 years, despite falling gasoline prices • Mid-market stores suffered the biggest […]

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