Our pH Report Sentiment Index has been a very reliable guide to the S&P 500 in recent years. Now it is suggesting a major downturn may be underway as the US and Chinese stimulus programmes come to an end.
Chemicals and the Economy
The stock market bubble starts to burst
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
Chart of the Year – the surge in Electric Vehicle sales will disrupt auto, oil and petrochemical markets
The implications of the rise in EV sales go well beyond the auto and oil markets, with petrochemicals likely to be next in line for disruption. This is why the surge in EV sales up the S-curve of adoption has to be my Chart of the Year.
OPEC+ faces difficult decisions as Covid returns, recession risks rise, and oil prices crash
OPEC+ oil producers saw prices tumble $10/bbl (13%) on Friday as the world woke up to the fact that the next phase of the pandemic may be underway. And this is not the only challenge that they face. OIL PRICES HAVE ONLY BEEN HELD UP BY MAJOR SUPPLY CUTBACKS The first is the challenge from […]
Plastics producers need to move to recycled feedstocks as Western refineries start to close
Plastics producers are now being squeezed from both ends of the value chain. Upstream, the growing demand for Electric Vehicles is starting to lead to refinery closures, reducing feedstock availability. Downstream, brand owners are stepping up the pressure for increased use of recycled plastic, as the new Global Commitment report from the Ellen Macarthur Foundation […]
The Fed’s stock market bubble is at risk as China bursts its real estate bubble
The US stock market bubble just keeps rising. And every investor “knows” that the US Federal Reserve will never let it burst. But the Fed can’t control the fallout from the bursting of China’s ‘subprime on steroids’ real estate bubble. Could this also mean the end of the Fed’s bubble? There is no doubt that […]
The end of China’s real estate bubble will impact global supply chains, exports and growth
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.” These lines from Ernest Hemingway’s classic novel “Fiesta” (USA title ‘The Sun also Rises’), summarise where we now are with Evergrande’s likely default in China. It did indeed begin “gradually” at first – starting in February 2016. As I noted here […]
Businesses set for transformation as supply chain chaos combines with Net Zero targets
‘Business as usual’ seems a most unlikely outcome as we look forward over the next 6 months. The pandemic may well bring further trials for us to endure. We also have to set budgets for the next few years, and so we will need new strategies and business models to respond to the Net Zero […]
Oil markets enter the endgame as car companies rush to electrify
Almost every day now sees a car company rushing to announce its plans to boost Electric Vehicle (EV) output. And key OPEC members – such as the UAE – are starting to recognise they have only a few years left to sell their oil, before the market disappears. Last May, the influential International Energy Agency […]
Oil markets, OPEC, enter the endgame for the Age of Oil
2 major events shocked oil markets last week. They marked the start of (a) the endgame for the Age of Oil and (b) the paradigm shift to the Circular Economy and the new Age of Energy Abundance. The new ‘Net Zero by 2050’ report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was the first shock: It […]