Tag Archives | Polyethylene

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Prices rise whilst demand falls

The blog is extremely concerned about recent market developments. Nobody minds higher prices, if they are a response to strong demand and can be passed through to customers. But today’s high prices have nothing to do with strong demand. On the contrary, in fact. Most consumers are actually reducing output. Equally, the wider economic outlook […]

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Brazil PE Aug12.png

Trade statistics confirm Brazil, China, slowdowns

Everyone is looking for clues as to how the market may develop during the second half of the year. One way is to listen to governments. But they, unfortunately, have a tendency to paint a rosy picture, as their main aim is to keep themselves in power. In addition, the rush to produce early snapshots […]

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Computers push oil prices higher, again

Trading volumes in financial markets are very low these days. Many ordinary investors are on holiday, and others are focused on the Olympics. So it is easy for the high-frequency computers to create major volatility – and large profits for their owners. Thus they managed to create a 1.5% fall in the S&P 500 on […]

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China PE Jul12.png

China’s PE demand slips as economic problems rise

Chemical markets are often rather good at providing important insights into wider economic trends. China’s polyethylene market is no exception. As the chart shows for the H1 period, based on trade data from Global Trade Information Services, demand has continued to slip: • It was down 1% (red column) versus H1 2011 (green) , and […]

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Financial markets hope for more policy ‘lunacy’

The last few days have seen financial markets rallying, whilst the news from the real economy gets worse. US GDP growth in Q2 was just 1.5%. And the Wall Street Journal notes the recovery since 2009 has been the weakest in the post-War period. But that doesn’t matter to the computerised trading systems that now […]

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‘Waiting for Bernanke’ is hottest show on Wall Street

‘Waiting for Godot’, the great play by Irish writer and Nobel Literature Prizewinner, Samuel Beckett, deals with the meaning of existence. Written just after the Second World War, its two characters wait endlessly for the arrival of Godot. US financial markets are currently staging their own version of the play: • They no longer see […]

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A is for Agility in today’s VUCA world

Pity the poor purchasing manager, who: • Must keep inventories low as end-user demand remains slow, and the CFO remains very worried about the working capital risk • Must keep inventories high, to minimise the risk of running short if supply problems develop and prices jump Benzene (green line), as always, is the great example […]

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IMF warns of lower global growth

Once again, the chemical industry has performed its role as a reliable leading indicator of the global economy. On Friday, the IMF warned their next forecast: “Will be tilted to the downside and certainly lower than the forecast that was published three months ago” This will not be news to blog readers. As the chart […]

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Weak chemical markets suggest difficult times ahead

Over Christmas, the blog spent some time considering whether its IeC Downturn Alert had served its purpose. By luck, or possibly judgement, it had been launched at the exact market peak on 29 April. And hopefully it had helped to alert companies to the difficult times that lay ahead. But by December, most analysts and […]

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Brazil PE Jun12.png

Brazil’s PE exports increase as its economy slows

Brazil’s economy has soared in recent years, as its raw materials have supplied China’s infrastructure boom. China now accounts for 17% of total exports, and has replaced the USA as its largest trading partner. In turn, of course, this led to major growth in Brazil’s own chemical demand. Its polyethylene (PE) imports grew 78% from […]

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