Tag Archives | Prof Martin Feldstein

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Boom/Gloom Index suggests markets on the edge

There’s “a 50% chance that the US could slide into a new recession“, according to Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein. He sees the economy as “really balanced on the edge“, with housing still depressed and consumer spending flat. The blog’s own IeC Boom/Gloom Index is flagging similar concerns. As the chart shows, the Index for July […]

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Feldstein says US recession “isn’t over”

Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein is one of the very few economists who has correctly forecast the length of the current downturn. Today, he questions whether the US recession is really over, and suggests that “2010 is going to be a very weak year“. He believes that we are entering a more frugal economy, and notes […]

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The blog was right on US GDP

In May 2008, the blog aligned itself with Harvard’s Prof Martin Feldstein, who declared that the Q1 2008 US GDP report was “grossly misleading“. Feldstein, after all, was in a position to know, as he was then chairman of the official body that decides whether the US is in recession. 15 months later, the US […]

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Revisions, revisions

Statisticians love re-writing economic history. And a notable example of this has occurred today. US government statisticians reported that the US economy actually declined by 0.2% at the end of last year. Whereas, 6 months ago, they reported it as having grown by 0.6%. Few readers of this blog will be too surprised. Earlier this […]

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