Governments spent most of February/March ignoring my warnings here on the dangers posed by the Covid pandemic. Now many are moving in the opposite direction. Unintentionally, they are helping to create fear and panic, which could well lead to another Great Depression and major social unrest. HOW DID WE GET HERE? I began warning of […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Political risk and total debt rise as US GDP disappoints, again
Its déjà vu all over again for the US economy. Friday’s news of Q2’s weak US GDP growth only confirmed the August 2014 comment by Stanley Fischer, then just appointed deputy Chairman of the US Federal Reserve: “Year after year we have had to explain from mid-year on why the global growth rate has been lower […]
US retail sales hit by declines in income and household wealth
US retail sales tell a sorry story about the state of underlying demand. US sales at Wal-Mart, the world’s largest store chain, have failed to grow for 6 consecutive quarters, with shopper traffic falling 1.1% in Q2. The company’s explanation for the problems is worth pondering by anyone in business: It is facing intense competition […]
China fines Unilever for soap price increases
There seems little doubt that China is increasingly worried by rising inflation. The latest sign is Unilever, the giant consumer products company, being fined $300k (RMB 2 million), for discussing plans to increase prices due to higher raw material costs. Those who can remember the US WIN (Whip Inflation Now) programme, or the UK’s Prices […]
IMF warns on recession’s “social consequences”
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, MD of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has a surprisingly hard-hitting interview today in Bloomberg. Casting aside normal central bank reticence he warns: • Their current $1.4 trillion forecast of global financial losses will soon be increased by a “significant” amount. • They will have to further reduce their November GDP forecast, which […]
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