It is 7 years since global stock markets bottomed after the 2008 financial crash. But as my regular 6-monthly update on their performance shows, it has been a very mixed picture since then. The chart shows how prices have moved since their pre-2008 peak in the world’s 8 major markets, and in the US 30-year […]
Tag Archives | S&P 500
Central banks are in a losing battle, as they try to reverse the inevitable slowdown created by the arrival of the demographic cliff. Last year’s 5% fall in global GDP in current dollars tells its own story. Common sense would tell them they can’t possibly win. After all, how do you persuade New Olders in […]
Its not been a great start to the year for those who have trusted in conventional wisdom: Western stock markets have been reeling, with the US S&P 500 Index down sharply since Monday It has been the worst opening for world stock markets since 2008 – not a good year for investors China’s currency has […]
Most traders prefer to be with the crowd – then, at least, they can’t be personally blamed if things go wrong. Instead, they can claim that “nobody could have seen the change coming”. So as we approach year-end, many traders are becoming very nervous as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus means that markets start […]
Greece, Iran, China – suddenly real world issues are starting to dominate the headlines. And few people now believe that printing more money is the way to solve these issues. Instead, political leaders are being forced to take the hard decisions they have ducked for so long. Financial markets are clearly reflecting the change. They […]
Q1 was very difficult for many companies and investors. They had wanted to believe since 2009 that central banks could somehow control the global economy: The oil price would always be $100/bbl The US $ would always remain weak Central banks would always be able to stimulate growth in the economy Stock markets would always go up in the […]
How long can the juggler keep all the balls in the air? That is the question that compels us to stand in the square and watch her skill at work. We have the same fascination watching central bankers at work – they similarly aim to keep financial markets aloft, to create their desired ‘wealth effect’. But we know that […]
Nobel Prizewinner Prof Robert Shiller correctly forecast the dot-com collapse in 2000, and the 2008 financial Crisis, using the chart above. Now he is warning we risk a 3rd collapse. The problem is that Western central banks have undertaken the largest financial experiment in history. Their policy has been to boost financial markets, particularly the US S&P 500 - the world’s […]
A year ago, the blog suggested that financial markets were reaching their most dangerous ‘melt-up’ stage, driven by investor complacency about the ability of central banks to protect them from any downturn. This analysis was confirmed in November, when absurdly high prices were paid for works of modern art, smashing previous records. Gillian Tett of the Financial Times (another of […]
“May you live in interesting times” is a Chinese proverb which has an alternative meaning as a curse. And the blog suspects this duality of meaning may start to make a lot of sense as we go through 2014. We have, after all, been in a very strange world for the past 5 years. Markets […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.