Petchem markets are continuing to act as leading indicators for the global economy. The IeC Downturn Alert shows there was no September rebound in orders after the holiday period. October will have to bring a sudden, and powerful reversal of the downward trend. Otherwise Q4 could be very difficult indeed. Benzene, the blog’s favourite market […]
Tag Archives | S&P 500
The IeC Boom/Gloom Index seems to have done its job. It was launched in June 2009, as a way of reflecting the extremely positive sentiment then building in financial markets. And as the chart shows, it remained bullish until July (blue column). Since then it has plunged back to the low levels seen between Q4 […]
ICIS pricing is a very valuable resource, particularly at market turning points. It highlighted the start of the current downturn in April, when reporting that buyers had moved to operating on a ‘hand to mouth’ basis. Now, its market editors are highlighting the fragility of demand due to ‘economic uncertainty’. This is the moment when […]
The blog’s IeC Downturn Alert is now 3 months old. The aim was to provide enough time for readers to develop robust contingency plans, as a new global downturn became more and more likely. A key issue is that dysfunctional political systems in the eurozone, USA and China seem unable to deliver sensible solutions to […]
Buyers’ behaviour has changed completely since the IeC Downturn Alert launched 7 weeks ago. ICIS news reported Friday a large polypropylene consumer commenting: “I am not buying a lot, just one or two trucks at a time. I kept a high stock level when prices were going up, so now I am using that up. […]
When the blog launched its IeC Downturn Alert in early May, it noted that “they don’t ring bells at market turning points”. However, it hoped that the Alert would provide a replacement. It seems to be doing its job. As the chart above shows, prices for all the products highlighted are now down between 9% […]
Source: www.chartoftheday.comThe price/earnings (P/E) ratio is the most fundamental measure of stock market value. If investors are optimistic, they will pay a high price per unit of earnings. If they are cautious, then the ratio will be lower. Thus the above chart from chartoftheday.com highlights a very significant secular change underway in investor mindsets. It […]
Investors on Wall Street are no longer bothering with the boring detail of company performance. That’s the conclusion from a new study by Barclays Capital, on the correlation between movements in the S&P 500 and individual stocks. Instead, they are piling into the ‘correlation trade’, as high-speed computers now often account for over 60% of […]
The blog’s quarterly look at US company earnings reveals a worrying trend. As Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst for S&P, puts it “”no sales means no jobs, means no recovery“. As the chart shows, Reported Earnings (red line) recovered strongly to $61 in Q1, and were back at Q1 2008 levels. Equally, as the Q2 […]
The blog’s early career, as a petchems trader in Houston, taught it to look out for moments when prices in one market start to diverge from those of a related product. These can often provide advance warning that a trend change is underway. Thus it is fascinated by the above chart, from commoditycharts.com. It shows […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.