Tag Archives | S&P 500

D

Markets down 9% – 15% since Downturn Alert began

When the blog launched its IeC Downturn Alert in early May, it noted that “they don’t ring bells at market turning points”. However, it hoped that the Alert would provide a replacement. It seems to be doing its job. As the chart above shows, prices for all the products highlighted are now down between 9% […]

Continue Reading
S&P 500 pe ratio Dec10.png

P/E ratios drop back to more realistic levels

Source: www.chartoftheday.comThe price/earnings (P/E) ratio is the most fundamental measure of stock market value. If investors are optimistic, they will pay a high price per unit of earnings. If they are cautious, then the ratio will be lower. Thus the above chart from chartoftheday.com highlights a very significant secular change underway in investor mindsets. It […]

Continue Reading
Traders.png

Traders focus on correlations, not fundamentals

Investors on Wall Street are no longer bothering with the boring detail of company performance. That’s the conclusion from a new study by Barclays Capital, on the correlation between movements in the S&P 500 and individual stocks. Instead, they are piling into the ‘correlation trade’, as high-speed computers now often account for over 60% of […]

Continue Reading
S&P earnsJul10.png

US company earnings soar, sales disappoint again

The blog’s quarterly look at US company earnings reveals a worrying trend. As Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst for S&P, puts it “”no sales means no jobs, means no recovery“. As the chart shows, Reported Earnings (red line) recovered strongly to $61 in Q1, and were back at Q1 2008 levels. Equally, as the Q2 […]

Continue Reading
Energy v S&P Apr10.png

US natural gas prices tumble

The blog’s early career, as a petchems trader in Houston, taught it to look out for moments when prices in one market start to diverge from those of a related product. These can often provide advance warning that a trend change is underway. Thus it is fascinated by the above chart, from commoditycharts.com. It shows […]

Continue Reading
Oil rig right.jpg

Oil hits $80/bbl

The blog should award itself a pat on the back, now its May forecast of $80/bbl crude has come true. And it is pleased to maintain its 100% record in forecasting the direction and level of oil prices. But it still regrets the lack of substance behind the so-called ‘correlation trade’ between oil, the US$ […]

Continue Reading
WTI, S&P Jul09.jpg

Crude oil prices tumble on S&P 500 weakness

Sometimes, the blog gets lucky with its timing. A week ago, it wrote bearishly on crude oil markets, and suggested that “chemical companies need to keep a close eye on changing sentiment in financial markets”. By Friday, oil prices had tumbled 11%, as the US S&P 500 index continued to weaken from its 12 June […]

Continue Reading
IndicesJan08.bmp

Selling the rallies

Stock markets are usually good indicators of future economic conditions. Their savage downturn since the start of the year suggests that investors now feel a growth slowdown is almost inevitable. Barrons (the major US investment paper) today highlights another very worrying development. It notes that ‘selling rallies aggressively is (now) more fruitful than buying every […]

Continue Reading