Back in April, the blog suggested that capital controls might remain for rather longer in Cyprus than the “few days or weeks” suggested by the central bank. And a month later, the bank was still unrealistically claiming they would be lifted “as soon as possible”. Today, the blog’s own view that they could be in place “for […]
Tag Archives | Spain
The risk of global recession continues to rise, with the World Bank last week warning that “the real-side recovery is weak and business sector confidence is low“. Spain, the world’s 12th largest economy, provides a good example of how the problems are spreading. Financial markets have temporarily decided that it has ‘turned the corner’, due […]
Spain is in the eye of the storm in the Eurozone crisis. Its economy is the 12th largest in the world, with GDP of $1.4tn. If it crashes out of the euro, then we will all feel the impact. And worryingly, the pace of events seems to be speeding up, even whilst the politicians continue […]
The blog’s series on the emerging ‘VUCA world’ today looks at how companies have to manage increased levels of Uncertainty. This can be seen in key areas of demand, such as housing. The above chart shows how US housing starts (blue line) have fallen from 2.1m in 2005 to just 0.6m last year. Housing permits […]
On 7 September 2008, in its now famous warning that a financial crisis was imminent, the blog noted that “‘Deleveraging’ is an ugly word, and it has ugly implications“. The chart above shows just how ugly these implications are becoming for the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain). It is based on data produced […]
The blog’s IeC Boom/Gloom sentiment indicator (blue column) continues to be neutral on the outlook. As the chart shows, this is quite unlike its performance in early 2009. Then it rose rapidly from February – accurately forecasting the major recovery that was about to start. The problem, of course, is that the austerity reading (red […]
New analysis by Bloomberg supports the blog’s view last month that the arrest of former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) probably marked a critical turning-point in the Eurozone debt crisis Not only was DSK no longer able to persuade German chancellor Merkel that the problems needed just “a little more time, a little more money”. […]
Many Greeks have always preferred not to pay taxes, and to retire in their 50s. This lifestyle was well understood by their new partners when they joined the Eurozone a decade ago, since when German/French banks have happily funded it with support from their governments. The chart, from the Bank of International Settlements (the central […]
The EU loans crisis began 6 months ago, when it became likely that Greece was never going to be able to repay its debts in full. Since then, Ireland has moved into a similar position. And there are expectations that Portugal and Spain will follow during 2011. Unsurprisingly, however, given the general lack of transparency […]
EU governments have spent enormous sums of money to support the economy over the past year. Yet in terms of a key indicator such as unemployment, the situation has got worse rather than better. This is bound to restrain consumer spending, a key factor for domestic EU chemical demand. Eurozone unemployment hit 10% in February, […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.