Tag Archives | stock markets

Stocks Sept16

Investors panic in “search for yield” as interest rates go negative

Its been a great few months for financial markets.  All the major markets have seen gains, as the chart shows – something that has happened only once before, since my half-yearly reviews began in March 2009: □   Long-term US Treasury bonds have gained, as long-term interest rates have been falling □   The 30-year bond […]

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Stocks Sept15

Stock markets weaken as ‘Ring of Fire’ fault-lines open

“Central banks have created a debt-fuelled ‘Ring of Fire’, and we will no doubt have felt many tremors (large and small) as a result, by the time my next 6-monthly update appears in September“. That was my forecast for world stock markets back in March, and I imagine few would argue with it today, as we review developments […]

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NYSE margin Aug15

Stock market volatility surges as margin debt hits danger level

Global stock markets turned in a vintage experience last week for those who like horror movies. Continued sell-offs in China finally convinced some financial investors, and some senior Western policymakers, that its economy might not be quite as strong as they had assumed.  The ensuing panic led to record profits for the high frequency traders (HFTs), as the Dow Jones […]

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Contagion hits financial markets as Great Unwinding continues

Crude oil prices continued to fall towards $30/bbl last week.  Markets are finally starting to recognise, as the BBC reported last year, that ‘China fooled the world‘ with its stimulus programme. It had not suddenly become middle-class by Western standards in 2009.  Instead, aided by developed country stimulus policies, its own stimulus had helped create […]

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Global stock markets still depend on low-cost money for support

The blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets highlights the narrow nature of the advance since September 2008, when the blog first began analysing developments.  It shows their performance since the pre-Crisis peak for each market, and the performance of the US 30-year Treasury bond. Remarkably, only the US, India, Germany and the UK stock markets […]

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Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus creates interest rate risk

Interest rate risk is rising in the developed economies as the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus continues.  Since the blog first highlighted this Unwinding last month: Oil prices have continued to tumble, with Brent now down over $15/bbl from its late-June peak The US$ has continued to rise from multi-year lows versus the yen, euro and pound And of course, […]

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High-frequency traders pay $millions to be legal highwaymen

In olden days, highwaymen would hang around stagecoach inns, waiting to see when wealthy people were travelling.  Then they would hide out along their likely route, getting wet and cold, in order to take their cash. Today the arrival of electronic trading has changed all this.  High-Frequency Traders (HFT) now have computer programmes to act as their lookouts, […]

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Most major financial markets have doubled since 2009 lows

The period since March 2009 has been a wonderful time for most investors in the major markets.  As the blog’s 6-monthly update shows, almost every index has increased, and by large amounts: Russia has been the biggest winner, up 151%, due to its oil and gas export position The US is up 147%, as the […]

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CME Feb11.png

Super-fast computers lead financial markets under QE2

Super-fast computers continue to increase their role in financial markets. They first came into prominence in H2 2009, when the ‘correlation trade’ began. Their role is nothing to do with price discovery, the traditional market function. Instead, they trade on algorithms. Their aim is trade arbitrage opportunities between markets on a nano-second by nano-second basis. […]

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S&P 500 pe ratio Dec10.png

P/E ratios drop back to more realistic levels

Source: www.chartoftheday.comThe price/earnings (P/E) ratio is the most fundamental measure of stock market value. If investors are optimistic, they will pay a high price per unit of earnings. If they are cautious, then the ratio will be lower. Thus the above chart from chartoftheday.com highlights a very significant secular change underway in investor mindsets. It […]

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