The Wall Street Journal draws an apt comparison between the strict regulation of chemical companies, and the lack of effective regulation on financial firms. It comments: ‘Chemical companies are under strict government regulations about what kinds of toxic waste they can produce, where they can store it, and how they can handle it and dispose […]
Chemicals and the Economy
OPEC says oil market ‘over-supplied’
This morning, the blog is awarding itself a pat on the back. This is because, almost alone, it forecast in mid-July that oil prices ‘could easily fall $50/bbl to $100/bbl’ in the absence of any military action on Iran. And it had the courage to repeat this comment on 4 August. It added that if […]
US house prices keep on falling
US house prices, according to today’s S&P/Case-Shiller Index, are still falling quite sharply. As shown in the chart, they are now down 17% versus last year. The key influence, according to S&P, is that ‘the markets that were the high-flyers during the recent real estate boom continue to be the ones that are leading the […]
China’s growth slows
China’s growth rate is slowing quite sharply. Exports to the US grew just 9% in H1, half the 2007 rate. In addition, ICIS news has reported that China’s important textile industry has seen a 25% decline in orders, whilst US polyethylene exports to China are also slowing. And the above chart showing China’s latest Purchasing […]
The nudist beach on Wall Street
When you’re the richest man in the world, you can generally say what you think. Thus Warren Buffett reflected reality back in March, when he commented that ‘by any commonsense definition, the US is in recession’. Yesterday, he probably ruffled a few more feathers when he told CNBC that he thought the US economy was […]
BASF reduce 2008 global GDP forecast
BASF have now reduced their 2008 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%. This may sound a small amount, but it means it is now in line with the Global Downturn Scenario set out in our Feedstocks for Profit Study. Previously, it had been just below our Base Case Scenario. CEO Jurgen Hambrecht still sounds confident, […]
Every silver lining has a cloud
I am currently lucky enough to be visiting Asia every month. This also gives me a chance to ‘check the temperature’ as regards people’s outlook on the economy. And I think its fair to say that the mood has moved from optimism to caution. Good news is tempered by its potential downside.
India feels credit squeeze
India is apparently facing its own subprime crisis. Banks have cut back on lending, as the Bank of India has caused real interest rates to rise to around 7%. Loan growth is already down 20% this year, with personal unsecured loans facing the greatest cutbacks. ICICI, India’s largest bank, has withdrawn entirely from this sector, […]
IMF identifies ‘serious slowdown’
The credit crunch and associated debt crisis has elicited an unprecedented response from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Today, the head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kohn, told the Financial Times that the new IMF economic forecasts would ‘show a serious economic slowdown that needs a serious response’. Just last autumn, the IMF was calling for […]
Moody’s seasonal ‘gift’ for SABIC
Its always interesting to see the news stories that are slipped out just before major public holidays, when media attention is likely to be low. Only ICIS news seemed to spot the announcement by Moody’s that they were placing SABIC Innovative Plastics (the former GE Plastics business) on watch for a potential ratings downgrade. Yet […]
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