Tag Archives | UK

Global stock markets still depend on low-cost money for support

The blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets highlights the narrow nature of the advance since September 2008, when the blog first began analysing developments.  It shows their performance since the pre-Crisis peak for each market, and the performance of the US 30-year Treasury bond. Remarkably, only the US, India, Germany and the UK stock markets […]

Continue Reading

“Unparalleled seismic demographic shifts now underway” in UK

What happens to demand when women stop having lots of babies, and the general population starts living very much longer? Common sense would suggest economic growth would go through 2 quite remarkable changes: Phase 1.  Growth would accelerate, as the population became concentrated in the wealth creating 25 – 54 age group, and the need […]

Continue Reading

UK tinkers with higher pension ages, ignores impact on GDP

Many readers have asked to see how the UK economy is being impacted by its ageing population, following the blog’s December series on the US, China, Japan, Germany and France.  As the chart shows, it is in a very similar position to all of these countries: Life expectancy has increased by 17% to 81 years today, from […]

Continue Reading
UK GDP Jul12.png

UK economy grew 330% since 1948 Olympics

Tomorrow sees the opening of the 3rd London Olympic Games. As promised, the blog today looks at the change in GDP per capita in the UK economy since the 2nd London Games in 1948 GDP per capita is the best measure of a country’s standard of living. It shows how the economy has grown, in […]

Continue Reading
LeadIndic Feb11.png

OECD indicators signal slower growth

The OECD’s leading indicators for the global economy suggest that GDP growth is continuing to slow. As the above chart from the American Chemistry Council shows, the OECD’s three key indicators have all slipped from H1 2010′s peaks. The composite indicator (blue) has fallen sharply to +5% from +13%, whilst industrial production (red) is down […]

Continue Reading
Election Apr10.png

UK voters want clarity on spending cuts

The UK has long had a tradition of two-party government, whereby the Labour party will alternate with the Conservatives. Thus Mrs Thatcher became Prime Minister in 1979 for the Conservatives, and was followed by John Major. Then Tony Blair won for Labour in 1997, with Gordon Brown taking over two years ago. Now, however, this […]

Continue Reading
Debt Apr10.png

US consumers enter the ‘new normal’

The US consumer accounts for 16% of total global GDP, with a value of $10trn. By comparison, total Asian consumption is under $5trn. China’s consumption in 2008 was just $1.6trn, about equal to the UK. Changes in US consumer behaviour are therefore critical to global GDP, and hence to chemical demand. The chart above, from […]

Continue Reading
Recessions Nov09.jpg

UK downturn follows the 1930/34 path

Politicians and analysts often focus on selling dreams. Otherwise, we might not be tempted to buy their promises of better times ahead. But those running businesses have to remain realistic. BASF’s CEO, Jurgen Hambrecht, did exactly that in his comments on the outlook. And the above chart, from the UK’s National Institute of Economic and […]

Continue Reading
Asian spending.jpg

US and EU dominate global consumption

Interesting new research from Prof Nouriel Roubini provides some perspective on relative levels of consumer spending around the world: • US private consumption accounted for 16% of total global output in 2008 • It was valued at $10trn, just ahead of European consumption at $9trn • Total Asian consumption was under $5trn • China’s consumption […]

Continue Reading

Exporting is no fun anymore

Japan and Germany are the great exporting countries of the industrialised world. They didn’t have the consumer booms seen in the USA and UK. Yet their economies are plunging, as export opportunities dry up. Yesterday, the Japanese finance minister, Kaoru Yosano, told parliament that the country was in “an economic crisis”. These are strong words, […]

Continue Reading