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Chemicals and the Economy

G7 Summit shows leaders are forgetting the lesson of the 1930s

G7 Summits began in the crisis years of the mid-1970s, bringing Western leaders together to tackle the big issues of the day – oil price crises, the Cold War with the Soviet Union and many others.  Then, as stability returned in the 1980s with the BabyBoomer-led economic SuperCycle, they became forward-looking.  The agenda moved to […]

Brexit a disaster for the UK, Europe and the world

First, the good news.  It has long been recognised that the UK economy is over-dependent on financial services, and that its housing market – particularly in London – is wildly over-priced in relation to earnings.  The Brexit vote should ensure that both these problems are solved: Many banks and financial institutions are already planning to […]

UK’s ageing population causes earnings to decline

The UK economy appears to be recovering well from the financial crisis.  But appearances can be deceptive. Certainly employment has risen for both men and women since 2009, and the jobless rate has fallen.  But new data yesterday from the Office for National Statistics highlights how, despite these achievements, total incomes have been falling in real […]

A toxic combination for economic policy

UK economic policy is now coming under discussion, as May’s Gemeral Election approaches.  The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter below, highlighting the economic impact of the demographic changes now underway. April 1, 2015 9:34 pm Sir, Your editorial “Zero significance in the UK inflation milestone”, (March 27) ignores the impact of two critical variables. As […]

Global stock markets still depend on low-cost money for support

The blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets highlights the narrow nature of the advance since September 2008, when the blog first began analysing developments.  It shows their performance since the pre-Crisis peak for each market, and the performance of the US 30-year Treasury bond. Remarkably, only the US, India, Germany and the UK stock markets […]

UK tinkers with higher pension ages, ignores impact on GDP

Many readers have asked to see how the UK economy is being impacted by its ageing population, following the blog’s December series on the US, China, Japan, Germany and France.  As the chart shows, it is in a very similar position to all of these countries: Life expectancy has increased by 17% to 81 years today, from […]

UK economy grew 330% since 1948 Olympics

Tomorrow sees the opening of the 3rd London Olympic Games. As promised, the blog today looks at the change in GDP per capita in the UK economy since the 2nd London Games in 1948 GDP per capita is the best measure of a country’s standard of living. It shows how the economy has grown, in […]

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