Tag Archives | US Federal Reserve

US Federal Reserve cuts growth forecast, again

5 years after the Crisis began, there still seems to be a worrying lack of accountability in the banking sector, even when things go wrong on an epic scale.  Take JP Morgan Chase, for example: It lost $6.2bn in London last year, which its CEO Jamie Dimon initially called “a tempest in a teapot” It has now been […]

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US stock markets hit record but real economy remains slow

“Don’t fight the Fed” is one of the oldest rules in stock market investment.  And it has proved valid again, as this month’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index shows: The Fed and other G7 central banks have poured $10tn of stimulus into financial markets since 2008 This cash has finally taken the S&P 500 (red line) into record territory Critical to this […]

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Central banks pop champagne corks as stock markets soar

Central bankers mean well. But, of course, good intentions do not guarantee good results. Their intention since the start of the 2008 crisis has been to boost financial markets. They have therefore provided $tns of liquidity, which has indeed produced record highs in major stock market indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones […]

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US Fed’s doubling of QE3 fails to impress markets

Over the past 4 years, 18 men (no women are involved) have run the global response to the financial crisis, as politicians refused to take a lead. Instead, the world’s leading central bankers felt forced to establish their own Economic Consultative Committee (ECC). They represent countries comprising 75% of the global economy ($51tn). They now […]

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Germany’s Bundesbank warns on the growth outlook

Last week the blog looked back at the performance of its 3 benchmark products since the start of 2009. This week it looks at what has happened to its 3 financial market products: • Before 2009, there was normally an inverse correlation between oil/naphtha prices and the US S&P 500 stock market index. Higher oil […]

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US Federal Reserve policies confront a closing door

The blog’s friends at the American Chemistry Council used a very relevant quotation recently from Alexander Graham Bell, who invented the telephone and numerous other modern wonders: “Sometimes we stare so long at a door that is closing that we seek too late the one that is open.” It is a theme taken up recently […]

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US companies’ revenue starts to fall, as higher oil prices bite

Whisper it quietly, so as not to disturb the world’s central bankers as they rest. But the impact of their latest round of quantitative easing programmes (yellow highlight, QE3) may already be slowing. As the chart shows, these had an immediate impact on financial markets from their launch in June: • The benchmark S&P 500 […]

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Boom/Gloom Index slows as sentiment weakens

Here we go again’ seems to be the reaction of financial markets to the US Federal Reserve’s latest push to expand liquidity. So far, policymakers have tried 4 times to return the economy to the world of the Supercycle between 1982-2007. As the chart shows: • Major stimulus programmes were launched by the G-20 in […]

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‘Waiting for Bernanke’ is hottest show on Wall Street

‘Waiting for Godot’, the great play by Irish writer and Nobel Literature Prizewinner, Samuel Beckett, deals with the meaning of existence. Written just after the Second World War, its two characters wait endlessly for the arrival of Godot. US financial markets are currently staging their own version of the play: • They no longer see […]

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Financial markets at top of their trading range, again

Financial markets cannot make up their minds about the outlook. As this month’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index shows, sentiment (blue column) remains exactly at the dividing line between optimism and pessimism. This parallels the behaviour of the S&P 500 Index (red line). It had recovered strongly from March 2009, but has since found it very difficult […]

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