In October 2008, the blog featured the US Treasury official responsible for running the $700bn TARP rescue fund. He was 35 years old, and just 6 years out of business school. Apparently there was nobody available with more experience to take on the role of “choosing which US financial institutions live, and which die“, during […]
Tag Archives | US Federal Reserve
The US Fed’s new QE2 Lifeboat programme designed to raise asset prices got off to a bad start last week, with most stock markets falling, rather than rising. It has also begun to run into major opposition from advisors to the new Republican-dominated Congress, with an open letter published Monday in the Wall Street Journal […]
US Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is one of the few policymakers to focus on reality rather than wishful thinking. He pointed out nearly 3 years ago that liquidity should not be mistaken for capital, although others continue to ignore this uncomfortable fact. Now, in advance of tomorrow’s G-20 meeting of the world’s richest economies, he […]
Last week, the blog repeated its warning that crude oil was preparing for a big move, either up or down. And prices then jumped 7%, to a two-year high of $87.49/bbl. So the ‘triangle formation’ proved its predictive power again. As the above chart shows, from Petromatrix, the driver behind the move was the Large […]
The US Fed’s move to launch its QE2 Lifeboat continues its policy of focusing on measures to boost liquidity. Yet as the blog has long argued, today’s problems are based on a lack of solvency not liquidity. Therefore it worries that the Fed’s efforts are likely to miss the mark, again. The above slide, based […]
So now its official. This week, the US Federal Reserve confirmed it was launching its ‘QE2 Lifeboat’. It will inject $600bn into the US economy, in yet another bid to kick-start full economic recovery. Clearly, this is a major initiative by the world’s most important central bank. Will it work? And what might it mean […]
An unnatural calm continues to dominate crude oil trading. Prices may move up or down by $2/bbl or $3/bbl a day, but then they always return to where they started, between the upper red line and the lower green one. The blog has kept its promised eye on developments, since this trend of ‘trading in […]
If you only read one newspaper article this year on the economic outlook, then the blog would recommend Martin Wolf’s recent analysis ‘Why America is going to win the global currency battle’. Wolf is a former EPCA speaker, and he sets out very convincingly the rationale for the US Federal Reserve’s planned move to restart […]
Warren Buffett, the legendary US investor once cautioned that “over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things.” We are certainly living through such times today. In August, the US S&P 500 Index fell 5%, as investors worried about the end of stimulus packages, and the return of banking problems in Europe. The IeC Boom/Gloom […]
The good news this week was that the body responsible for dating US recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, finally declared that the so-called Great Recession was over. It was the longest since the Depression, running from December 2007 to June 2009, and twice as deep as in 1981-2, causing a 4% loss in […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.