Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) are on the rise, as countries seek to protect their own manufacturers. The most publicised ADDs so far, of course, were those by the US on Chinese tyres in September. In retaliation, China hit companies such as BASF with duties on US produced nylon 6. Separately, India imposed an ADD on caustic […]
Tag Archives | USA
The blog has been worrying for some time about what will happen when governments end their stimulus programmes. It does not share the optimism of financial markets, that these will provide to be the “escape velocity” for a quick return to 2003-7 Boom conditions. Today’s data from Germany seems to support its concerns. According to […]
The probable ending of the destocking/restocking phase is a good moment to look back at what has happened to chemical industry volume in recent years. The chart, based on data kindly supplied by Kevin Swift of the ACC, shows how volume has moved, by Region, with Q1 2006 = 100: Global. Volume in Q2 this […]
Globalisation flourished whilst economic growth was strong. Jobs lost in Western countries were replaced by new jobs. Whilst cheaper production offshore kept consumer prices low, as well as bringing more people into the world economy. But today’s economic downturn means this virtuous circle is turning vicious. Western countries are becoming more protectionist and hope to […]
There are clear signs in the above chart that the inventory cycle has turned positive again, as customers restock. Globally, data from the American Chemistry Council shows chemical production now down 10.5% versus last year, after being 13.4% down in March, in line with signs that GDP in the west is now stabilising. But will […]
Interesting new research from Prof Nouriel Roubini provides some perspective on relative levels of consumer spending around the world: • US private consumption accounted for 16% of total global output in 2008 • It was valued at $10trn, just ahead of European consumption at $9trn • Total Asian consumption was under $5trn • China’s consumption […]
China has been a major beneficiary of the globalisation movement in recent years. In turn, it has become a tremendous importer of most chemicals. It accounts for up to 50% of total demand for many Asian chemical producers, and is a critical factor in most supply/demand balances. This position was already changing, however, as China […]
Japan and Germany are the great exporting countries of the industrialised world. They didn’t have the consumer booms seen in the USA and UK. Yet their economies are plunging, as export opportunities dry up. Yesterday, the Japanese finance minister, Kaoru Yosano, told parliament that the country was in “an economic crisis”. These are strong words, […]
The decline in auto sales is now threatening many industry suppliers around the world: • Today, the main Japanese car parts group has warned that “Toyota’s production cuts will cause bankruptcies among suppliers if the government restricts aid to large manufacturers”. • Last month, the main US associations requested $18.5bn in support from the Obama […]
Alan Greenspan’s comments (below), led the blog to investigate how the world’s major stock markets had moved since their recent peaks. All, as shown in the chart, are now in bear markets. Stock markets often forecast economic developments 6 – 12 months ahead, and so this represents a negative indicator for future chemical demand. Also […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.