We are living in a New Normal world. Populists such as Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Marine le Pen and Beppe Grillo are gaining support as economic growth slows and social/political unrest becomes common. My presentation at our annual conference last week in Vienna highlighted some of the key issues, as Jessie Waldheim of ICIS news […]
Chemicals and the Economy
A VUCA world of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
“A week is a long time in politics” was the insight of former UK premier Harold Wilson. It is tempting to think that the events of the past week – a terrorist massacre in France: an attempted army coup in Turkey: a fatal US sniper attack: the overnight emergence of a new government with new […]
IMF’s Greek memo confirms VUCA world has arrived
The good news was that the Eurozone leaders did realise, at the last moment, that Sunday was a “moment of truth” for the currency union and for Europe. They spent 17 hours negotiating through the night as a result. But reports suggest it wasn’t an easy time: The BBC carried live reports of arguments between […]
Leaders need to “see around corners” in today’s VUCA world
The number “42” was the answer to “the ultimate question of life” in the classic novel ‘The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe’. Yet as the supercomputer providing this answer then explained, it was a pointless exercise as nobody understood the meaning of the original question. The world’s policymakers are in the same position, although they don’t yet realise this. They […]
“The policy Kings/Queens have no clothes”
There seems almost no need to publish a forecast for 2014. Policymakers have toured the TV studios to confirm that this is finally the year of recovery. They admit it may have taken nearly 5 years longer than first expected, and that there have been numerous ‘false dawns’ on the way. But now, they are certain that […]
Four things we think we know, but probably don’t
Knowing that we don’t know something makes us uncertain and cautious. If, for example, we come to a dangerous corner in the road when driving, we see the sign and slow down. Its when we are driving on a bright winter morning and don’t look for the ice under the trees that we end up in […]
US auto sales reward agility in spotting opportunities
We are now into the seasonally weaker selling part of the year for US auto markets, as the chart shows. The big months for volume are always March – August, and then sales slow until December – when manufacturers offer ‘special deals’ to boost their annual numbers. On this basis, October seems to have been a […]
China’s polyester market warns of demand weakness ahead
Something very important seems to be happening in China’s polyester’s markets. The blog was brought up on these markets in its early days with ICI, when it was part of the team that launched PTA into Asian markets for the first time in the mid-1980s. It has always seen them as a source of steady growth, with […]
Budgeting for a VUCA world
“I use the term VUCA to describe the world – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. It is very difficult for people to get a total picture.” Paul Polman, Unilever CEO The title for the 2013 Budget Outlook chooses itself. If the CEO of Unilever, one of the world’s great companies, can’t get a “total picture”, […]
Time again to ‘Manage by Walking About’
Different times demand different skills. During the SuperCycle, one could assume growth was a constant. So forecasting meant a focus on better understanding developments down the value chain in the relevant product silos. Then managers could be set ‘stretch targets’ to ensure they met expectations for revenue and profit growth. But today, as the blog has […]
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