Crude oil prices continued to fall towards $30/bbl last week. Markets are finally starting to recognise, as the BBC reported last year, that ‘China fooled the world‘ with its stimulus programme. It had not suddenly become middle-class by Western standards in 2009. Instead, aided by developed country stimulus policies, its own stimulus had helped create […]
Chemicals and the Economy
SuperCycle era ends for analyst ‘buy’ judgements
The above chart may well become a collectors’ piece in time. It appears in a fascinating article in the latest Harvard Business Review, which focuses on why stock market analysts in the USA (U), Europe (E), Asia (A) and Latin America (L) issue ‘buy’ recommendations on a company. It represents the end of the economic […]
Wal-Mart sends a message
The blog is a great believer in the predictive power of the retail sector. Wal-Mart and Tesco were the first to spot the downturn in the summer of 2007, a year before it became obvious to everyone else. Now Wal-Mart’s problems are providing some important messages about how companies need to adjust their strategies to […]
Arise, Sir Evil?
Apparently its not just Jim Cramer who is less than happy with the current performance of Dow CEO, Andrew Liveris. The New York Times notes that merger arbitrageurs on Wall Street have started to spell his surname backwards, and re-christened him accordingly.
Another view of the Wall St crisis
Ken Rogoff was Chief Economist at the IMF, and is now a Harvard professor. His view on Wall Street’s current problems is refreshingly different. Writing in The Guardian, he notes that ‘efficient financial systems are supposed to promote growth in the real economy, not impose a huge tax burden’. But, he adds, ‘the US financial […]
Father Christmas didn’t visit last month
Yesterday’s action in financial markets reminded me of the Bird/Fortune video (noted here in December), where they took a satirical look at the causes of the sub-prime debacle. Specifically, the question in the interview where Fortune describes Bird as a ‘sophisticated investment banker, with his fingers right on the pulse’. The moment that recalled this […]
A simple guide to the credit crisis
The New York Times has an excellent feature today that aims to explain how ‘US sub-prime mortgages could take out the whole global financial system’. I know that many readers found the Bird/Fortune video on the subject very useful last December. So I thought you might like to know about this new analysis. The Times […]
To cut, or not to cut?
One of the benefits of writing this blog is that it provides the opportunity to research behind the headlines, and better understand what is really happening. Friday’s US payrolls report, which showed the first loss of US jobs for 4 years, is a classic example. Nobody in the chemical industry should have been too surprised […]
Interesting Quotes
Normally a 275 point fall on Wall Street, and a 600 point fall in Hong Kong, would make for some headlines. But this time, the media coverage has been very muted. Presumably everybody thinks it will be another ‘9 day wonder’, and believes with Chuck Prince of Citigroup that one simply has to keep ‘dancing’. […]
Greed and Fear
Bill Gross runs PIMCO, the world’s largest government bond managers with assets of nearly $700bn. In a new commentary, he pulls no punches about what he sees as the ‘gluttony’ of the super-rich amongst the private equity and hedge fund elite. He also takes aim at the lenders who, in his view, have been ‘too […]
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