January 2011 Archives

The sorry tale of failed privatizations in Poland's chemical industry is a familiar one to anyone with an interest in that region. After the collapse of the tender process for top fertiliser and melamine producers Zaklady Azotowe Pulawy (ZAP) and Zaklady Chemiczne Police (ZChP) we now learn that the government is considering another attempt, but on the stock exchange rather than through further public tenders.
The Polish treasury ministry says the move is being considered because the fast-changing economic situation means that prices suggested at the beginning of a lengthy tender process could be unrealistic by its end.
he failure of the ZAP and ZChP sell-off is the latest in a series of privatisation failures reaching back to October 2006 when officials scrapped a decision to sell caprolactam, plastics and fertilizer producer Zaklady Azotowe Tarnow (ZAT) and fertilizer and oxo-alcohols producer Zaklady Azotowe Kedzierzyn (ZAK) to Germany's PCC.
The era of massive feedstock cost advantage for the chemical industry may be coming to an end. According to a report out today from bank HSBC, a review is expected to gradually push natural gas prices up from $0.75/mmbtu up to $2/mmbtu by 2015. 

With US natural gas prices falling to around $4mmbtu thanks to shale gas, the cost advantage looks like it will be fast disappearing. This is especially true when you factor in the extra logistics costs from the Middle East plus depreciation of those shiny new ethane cracker assets.

The discount for liquid feeds is also predicted to decrease from the current 28% down to 25% by 2014. 
HSBC What Price is Right
Shale gas is proving to be a massive bonus for the US chemical industry, heralding an era of cheap ethane feedstocks disconnected from global oil prices. There is exploration going on in Europe, but it is proving to be controversial amongst environmental campaigners. 

A report on this morning's UK Radio 4 Today programme highlighted the concerns of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change. They talk about a shale gas "rush" in the US before the technology is full tested.

The report mentioned youtube footage of exploding water taps. I have found these and they are a little disturbing!


The leaders of INEOS have once again proved themselves to be clever and innovative in seizing opportunities for growth and the reshaping of their company in both oil and chemicals. 
The new deal with PetroChina and parent group China National Petroleuem Corporation (CNPC) gives the company access to the all-important Chinese market.
It also reduces the company's exposure to a loss-making European oil refining business which hammered its finances when the oil price plummeted in 2008, leaving it with €845m in inventory losses that year. 
The deal will also please the company's lenders who had to cope with debt covenant renegotiation during the darkest days of the downturn. 
The first part of the agreement is a framework agreement with PetroChina to form joint ventures - by the end of June 2011 - in trading and refining at Grangemouth, Scotland and Lavera, France. Swiss headquartered INEOS also agreed with CNPC to share refining and petrochemical technology and expertise. 
The second part could be important for INEOS as it tries to expand beyond its stronghold of Europe and North America. With deals like this and the proposed European ethylene terminal at Antwerp, Belgium, INEOS is proving itself to be not just a survivor, but a versatile and adaptable company.
With a stable and fast-growing economy which held up well during the downturn, Turkey should already have a burgeoning chemical sector. But the country has been running a huge polymer deficit for many years thanks to decades of underinvestment in the country's national champion, Petkim. 

But since successful privatization, Petkim has made bold plans to invest in an oil refinery and petrochemicals complex, "Petkim Peninsula"

And, according to ICIS news, Petkim achieved an annual production record in 2010 with output climbing above 3m tonnes for the first time in its 45-year history. Production amounted to approximately 3.2m tonnes compared to 2.9m tonnes in 2009, with the company last year achieving a plant utilisation capacity of 98%.

The figures were in line with Petkim's initial progress in creating a $5bn (€3.75bn) petrochemical 'super site' by 2015 at Aliaga, near Izmir, on an Aegean coast peninsula, said Petkim CEO Kenan Yavuz.

"[Under Petkim majority shareholder] Socar & Turcas, we remain focused on a refinery-petrochemical integration on the 'Petkim peninsula'. We have plans at least to double production capacity of Petkim [by 2018], to grow in the logistics area, become the largest power producer in the region, and to adopt the petrochemical production cluster model, ...transforming Petkim into a global petrochemicals and energy super site," Yavuz said.

Petkim has engaged Singapore-based consultants Jurong International to help create the Aegean petrochemical hub, with the intention of developing a blueprint similar to that behind the Jurong Island industrial zone in Singapore.

In June last year, Petkim announced it had signed a deal with Foster Wheeler for the front-end engineering design of a $4bn, 10m tonne/year refinery that would produce feedstock for a new 800,000 tonnes/year ethylene cracker that is central to the project.

Construction on the refinery should begin in the first half of this year, with completion targeted for mid-2014, Yavuz said.


Rather out of the blue, Sibur owners Gazprombank have sold a 50% stake in the Russian petrochemical major to a company controlled by Leonid Mikhelson, CEO of Russia's second-largest gas producer Novatek. Mikhelson has the option to boost this to 100%. 

What this means for Sibur is anyone's guess though Novatek would probably be a good source of natural gas for feedstocks. I am trying to source an interview with Sibur to discuss the implications of this move. 

Gazprombank, a subsidiary of Russian gas giant Gazprom, sold the stake to Russia's ZAO Miracle. There is no sign of ZAO Miracle on the web, suggesting it is a holding company created for the purpose of this deal. 

Gazprombank said in a separate statement that ZAO Miracle would have an option to acquire a 100% interest in Sibur. No other details of the transaction were disclosed. Sibur Holding has been controlled by Gazprom and Gazprombank since December 2005. 

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