June 2009 Archives

A new report predicts the end of the world will be worse than the last report predicting the end of the world said

[Photo: Magnolia Pictures]

THE OZONE layer was supposed to be gone by 1977, you know. The population of New York City, currently around 9m, was supposed to be up to 20m (or else the city was scheduled to be a maximum security prison by 1997). I was sure pollution was going to render the fields barren and mass starvation ubiquitous by the late 1970s.


Not to make light of ozone depletion, overpopulation, pollution and other environmental/sociological problems - I was certain my morning commute was going to be via canoe by this time - but the hysteria and panic of 20 or more years ago seems just a tad silly now.

It's something to remember when reading the latest tome of sci-fi-like disaster projections: In May, former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's Global Humanitarian Forum (GHF) released a report, and we are doomed, I tell you. Doooomed!

According to the GHF's Human Impact Report: Climate Change - The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, global warming/climate change is the yearly cause of 315,000 deaths and $125bn (€90bn) in damages.

But the report's methodology makes no direct links. No one is described as dying from climate change, but from something (like tribal warfare) that was caused, says the report, by something else inspired by something else that is finally linked to climate change. The bigger the net, the more fish you catch, I suppose.

Roger Pielke, professor in the Environmental Studies Program at the US's University of Colorado, Boulder, calls the report "a methodological embarrassment and poster child for how to lie with statistics.

"The report will harm the cause for action on both climate change and disasters because it is so deeply flawed."

The GHF report states that it does have a "significant margin for error," but even then, it often seems to stretch things. Pielke notes that the report "engages in a very strange comparison of earthquake and weather disasters in 1980 and 2005.

"The first question is, why? They are comparing phenomena with many 'moving parts' over a short time frame, and attributing 100% of the resulting difference to human-caused climate change.... [These] events do not have the same variability, and earthquake disasters affect only a small part of the total inhabited area of the earth, whereas weather disasters occur much more widely. The assumption that weather disasters should track earthquake disasters is flawed from the outset for both geophysical and socio-economic reasons."

A patch that tells you when you've had a little too much sun? I could certainly warm to the idea.

I can't say that getting sunburned has ever been much of a problem for me in the UK.

But the threat of global warming and the gloomy expectations that temperatures will soar - even in Britain - mean I could be tempted by a new product being developed by scientists in Scotland.

Canny researchers from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, are behind an innovative new "intelligent ink" strip that attaches to skin or clothing and warns the wearer when it's best to cover up while outdoors.

Ultraviolet (UV) rays from the sun can be deceptive. Even after basting ourselves in all manner of oils and creams, too much sun can be potentially dangerous.

This new strip aims to give us some advance warning of when we're getting a little crispy.

Researchers point to the UV sensitive agent in the ink that reacts with a dye after exposure to UV light. These color-changing inks and dyes can be printed onto different surfaces such as paper or plastic, and used to detect high levels of UV light. Responsiveness can be tweaked depending on skin type, meaning no one should suffer red raw shoulders or burnt legs again.

Although there is now far greater awareness about the dangers of the sun, many still fall foul of overexposure. Typically, any sign of burning or irritation is delayed for four to eight hours after exposure, catching thousands of us offguard each year.

According to the charity, Cancer Research UK, this is the main cause of malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancers. A history of sunburn doubles the risk.

Figures show that malignant melanoma incidence rates in Britain have quadrupled since the 1970s and have risen faster than any other common cancer over the past 25 years. More than 70,000 people in the UK are diagnosed with skin cancer each year.

With plans underway to start a consumer trial, and the University hopeful that full production and commercialisation could start later this year, there's now no reason for anyone to be left red-faced.