Tag Archives | forecasting

On Vince Cable, Zac Goldsmith and the attractions of doom-mongering

I’ve just read ”The Great Disappointment follows the Great Recession“ by Paul Hodges, the Vince Cable of the chemical industry. It certainly brought me down to earth after yesterday’s excitement.   Not that there’s anything wrong with Vince Cable, who happens to be my local MP and is roundly adored by all his constituents. Returned with 54% […]

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Peak Oil will be $150-200/barrel in next 5 years – Arup

Oil will peak at $150-200/barrel in the next five years, said John Miles, global leader for energy resources and industry at consulting engineers Arup, on BBC Radio 4′s Today programme this morning.   Representing the findings of a group of business leaders calling for urgent action to prepare the UK for peak oil, he claimed […]

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Roland Berger Strategy interview on video

I’m impressed at this video which Will shot on his own camera while interviewing a leading chemical industry consultant today in the leafy surroundings of London’s Berkeley Square (of nightingale fame).   Will Beacham, European bureau chief of ICIS Chemical Business (ICB), was interviewing Thorsten Ploss, partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, for an ICIS […]

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A forecasting joke

My friend Paul Hodges was here in the office on Friday and showed me a shocking slide from a presentation which a well-known chemicals consultancy had given at an industry briefing in June 2008, showing peak oil continuing for years to come and hence high chemical plant operating rates and high profitability. As we all […]

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Revisiting the predictions of the Aromatics Conference 2008

It’s always good to be proved right.   It has been brought to my attention that one of the speakers at our European Aromatics Conference in Cologne in November 2008 made some fairly accurate predictions in his presentation: 1) a prediction of 40 – 53 $/bbl range for WTI Crude2) the banking situation could only […]

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Black Swans and Benzene

ICIS aromatics editor Peter Salisbury warns us to expect the unexpected … Earlier this year I gave a presentation at the ICIS Phenol and Acetone Conference in Budapest. Reception to the paper was frankly mixed, as it tried to link a relatively obscure philosopher/quantative analyst with benzene forecasting. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, as they say. […]

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