Entries from Asian Chemical Connections tagged with 'China's economy'
Demand Weakness Dominates
By John Richardson A CAREFUL reading of all the major ICIS pricing reports covering olefins, polyolefins, aromatics and their derivatives over the last few weeks reveals very few mentions of the phrase "peak demand season". This time last year, the...
The New Normal World In 2021
By John Richardson ALL of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new eBook, 'Boom, Gloom and the New Normal', does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will...
The Chemicals Party Is Over
By John Richardson IT has been a fantastic party. Nobody expected that the drinks would last for so long, thanks to Wen Jiabao and Ben Bernanke working overtime to man the 24/7 off-licence (it is called "liquor store" in the...
Fingers Crossed For No Double-Dip Recession
The Risk Of Exhausted Optimism Source of picture: http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/double-dip-recession/ By John Richardson Global polyethylene (PE) oversupply will be "challenging but manageable" over the next year-and-a-half provided there is no double-dip economic downturn, said Joe Duffy, consultant with...
China Chem Imports May Fall On Yuan Expectation
As cheap as chips Source of picture: europa.eu By John Richardson THE decline in the Euro has resulted in investors downgrading their expectations of a Yuan appreciation taking place over the next few months. Last week, Yuan...
Western Chems: Exporting Into More Domestic Trouble?
China's migrant workers - a risky game... Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson THIS very disturbing Op-Ed piece by Paul Krugman in the New York Times argues that the US needs to impose a 25%...
China's Growth In 2010: Two Theories
More buying of junk in H1 next year that nobody really needs? Source: www.blogcleveland.com By John Richardson TWO theories about growth in China next year revolve around either an appreciation or devaluation of the Yuan. The appreciation...
China PE Growth All-Time High
Source of picture: www.americanprogress.org By John Richardson China's high-density polyethylene (HDPE) demand is expected to grow by 38% to around 7m tonnes forecasts CBI China, the Shanghai-based commodity information service. Linear-low density (LLDPE) is expected to rise by...
China indicates monetary tightening
Confused Direction Source of picture: China Daily A TIGHTER monetary policy is being evaluated by China's State Council, one of the country's most-powerful legislative bodies, according to numerous media reports - including this one from Reuters. And the...
How do Asian cracker operators compete?
Source of Picture: www.autospies.com Not an easy answer and not one much suited to a few paragraphs of blogging. But here's one thought as the competitive environment becomes a great deal more difficult due to new Middle East capacity...
Calling all CFOs: Ready To Take The Plunge?
Source of picture: oxo.typepad.com Leaving China aside for a change - where the speculative frenzy continues apace -Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst, has a four-step measure for assessing whether the US and Europe are really out of the woods. "Purchasing...
China inventory sentiment survey
Peering through the fog On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count...
Credit Expansion Linked To Dalian Boom?
Source of Picture: http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/ We have just started doing our research and so more details later - but see attached this Excel spreadsheet - lendingVDalianOI.xls It compares the increase in lending from China's banks with the amount of open...
Dalian LLDPE futures explained?
My last blog entry quoted a North American industry source who was concerned over the potential for physical delivery on the Dalian futures exchange to flood the real market and send prices crashing. In my ignorance of how futures markets...
Where is the real demand recovery?
Have you ever been away on holiday and have cut yourself off from from work, only to return and find that nothing has changed? So it seems in polyolefin markets. As this blog has been writing about for several...
Back to the Serious Stuff: Fitch issues China warning
As I've been warning on this blog for some time, the explosion of credit in China has created a great deal of paper-bottomed optimism over the recovery. Fitch, the ratings agency, has just raised its macro-prudential risk indicator ffor...
Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China
This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank (see the end of this post) offers evidence to support what this blog has been worried about for some time - the quality of...
Is it better to be right for not quite......
......all the right reasons than to be wrong altogether? Sounds a dumb question, perhaps - unless you take particular pride in being one of those know-it-alls. The point I am trying to make (and assuming that chemicals pricing doesn't...
Is China repeating the mistakes of the US?
My current favourite blogger is Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, who, in his latest post, makes a very worrying point below. As an aside, and without wanting to take the 1930s analogy too far,...
It's getting darker and darker out there
China's economy, Canton Trade Fair, China unemployment, deflation threat, high inventories, China Daily
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