Entries from Chemicals & The Economy tagged with 'China'
China's 'Ponzi loans' now 69% of GDP
China's electricity consumption (green line) is the best real-time guide to economic developments. It is now beginning to confirm the blog's suggestion that a major shakeout is underway as the new leadership takes charge: • Consumption soared in response to...
China's Q1 PVC imports drop 98% as housing bubble targeted
Q1 data from Global Trade Information Services provides further evidence of the slowdown underway in China. As the chart shows, the dramatic drop in net PVC imports suggests the new leadership are determined to burst the house price bubble they...
China's electricity consumption growth just 2% in March
As new premier Li Keqiang noted some years ago, China's GDP statistics are "man-made and therefore unreliable". But as leadership targets, they are very important in signalling the direction to be taken. Thus the blog is quite amazed that the...
Licence plate trading drives Q1 jump in China's auto sales
Something very strange happened in China's auto market during Q1. As the chart shows, sales (red square) rocketed 20% in January/February versus 2012 (green line), before cooling to 15% growth in March. Neither government nor the auto industry expects this...
China's need to clean up pollution will slow economic growth
Pollution is, unfortunately, one of the downsides of industrial development. Luckily for us in the West, it is mostly a distant memory. But as the BBC picture on the left reminds us, Britain was paralysed by 'smog' (a lethal mixture...
China's new leadership prepare for property price crackdown
China's new premier, Li Keqiang, was the first senior official to confirm that the country's GDP figures were "for guidance only", being "man-made and therefore unreliable". As he told the US ambassador in 2007, he instead used electricity consumption and...
Xi Jinping needs to repeat his father's economic success
Xi Jinping was formally confirmed as China's new president this week. But we know remarkably little about him, apart from a rather dry list of his official positions as he climbed the career ladder. This is understandable, given the chaos...
China's PVC imports tumble as its housing market slows
Jiang Zemin never spent too much time worrying about Western financial markets or domestic criticism, either before or after he became China's president between 1993-2003. Instead, he focused on 3 core areas, which became known as the Three Represents: "The...
China's new leadership starts to change economic direction
Today sees the start of China's annual National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, when the new leadership of president Xi and premier Li will formally take office. Judging by their activity since November, when the appointments were confirmed, we may...
IMF warns on potential for China decline
The blog is awarding itself and co-author John Richardson a pat on the back today, for its pioneering insight into the major changes underway in China's economy due to the 'one child policy'. As the chart above shows, China's economy...
Downside risks mount for China's economy
What is the right conclusion to draw from the above graph? Much rests on the answer, as China's polyethylene (PE) demand is a good indicator for the overall state of its consumer demand: • Was the dramatic leap in demand...
China's new leadership have major economic task ahead
The approach of Lunar New Year is a good moment to look back over the economic inheritance being left by president Hu and premier Wen as they handover to Xi and Li next month in China. Their strategy was to...
China's growth slows now Party Congress has ended
China, like the USA, had a leadership transition in November. And, of course, this led to led to some effective 'massaging' of the economy in the preceding months. As the blog noted in November, it was no coincidence that bank...
Affordability, not luxury, the focus for China's new leadership
Half of China's population lived in abject poverty as recently as 1979, with incomes less than $2/day. Since then, economic policy has largely focused on reducing this number. As the chart shows, only 7% are still in this position (brown...
China's leaders aim for "greater political courage and wisdom"
China's new leaders have made a good start. Its too early to say whether they will really tackle the key issues, but the change in style is noteworthy in itself: • New premier Li Keqiang made his first official trip...
Shanghai's stock market falls back to 2009 levels
Every stock market chart tells a story. And the chart above is no exception. It highlights investors' roller-coaster ride over the past 5 years since the Shanghai stock market hit its all-time peak of 5903 in October 2007: • After...
China's new leaders face slowing economy, rising protests
There are two great myths in the modern world. One, as discussed yesterday, is that central banks can restore growth to SuperCycle levels. The other is that China's economy will grow consistenly at high rates for the next decade. Both...
China's PE market heads into the New Normal
This is a big week for politics. Today is the US Presidential election, which could have major implications for US-China trade, as Mitt Romney has said he will brand China a 'currency manipulator' on his first day in office. It...
China's auto sales remain in the slow lane
Mark Twain, the famous US writer, put it well when he warned that: "It isn't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you think you know for sure." This has certainly been the case with auto...
China's PE market continues to stall
In the SuperCycle, polyethylene (PE) demand growth was closely linked to economic growth. Our research for the 2008 Feedstocks for Profit study showed, for example, a 1: 1 ratio between global growth in GDP and PE demand between 2002-7. But...
Feed Subscription
If you use an RSS reader, you can subscribe to a feed of all future entries tagged 'China'. [What is this?]
